“大气十条”政策的节能降碳效果评估与创新中介效应  

Evaluation of Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Effect of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan and Innovation Intermediary Effect

作　　者：李少林[1] 王齐齐 LI Shao-lin;WANG Qi-qi(Center for Industrial and Business Organization,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,大连116025

出　　处：《环境科学》2023年第4期1985-1997,共13页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA042);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403041);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(19YJA790042);辽宁省社会科学规划基金青年项目(L19CJY008);辽宁省教育厅新型智库项目(LN2020X08)。

摘　　要：为评估《大气污染防治行动计划》(“大气十条”政策)的节能降碳效果与作用机制,在测度2003~2017年281个地级和以上城市单位地区生产总值能耗和CO_(2)排放量的基础上,运用双重差分模型探究了“大气十条”政策对节能降碳的影响、创新中介效应和城市异质性.结果表明:(1)“大气十条”政策促进全样本城市能耗强度显著下降17.60%,碳排放强度显著下降19.99%,在通过平行趋势检验、克服内生性和安慰剂、动态时间窗和反事实、三重差分和PSM-DID估计等一系列稳健性检验基础上,上述结论依然成立.(2)机制分析表明,“大气十条”政策通过绿色发明型专利为载体的直接创新中介效应实现节能降碳效果,创新引致的产业结构升级效应的间接创新中介效应实现节能效果.(3)异质性分析表明,“大气十条”政策对煤炭消费大省的节能降碳幅度分别大于非煤炭消费大省0.86%和3.25%;对老工业基地城市的降碳幅度大于非老工业基地36.43%,但节能效果小于非老工业基地8.93%;对非资源型城市的节能降碳幅度分别大于资源型城市31.30%和74.95%.(4)结果显示,须强化煤炭消费大省、老工业基地城市和资源型城市等重点地区的创新投入和产业结构升级力度,以充分发挥“大气十条”政策的节能降碳效果.In order to evaluate the effect and mechanism of energy saving and carbon reduction of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan(the Policy),on the basis of measuring the energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions of GDP per unit area in 281 prefecture-level cities and above from 2003 to 2017,the influence,intermediary effect of innovation,and urban heterogeneity of the Policy on energy saving and carbon reduction were explored by using a difference-in-difference model.The results showed that:①the Policy promoted a significant reduction of 17.60%in the energy consumption intensity and 19.99%in the carbon emission intensity in the whole sample city.Based on a series of robustness tests,such as the parallel trend test,overcomed endogenous and placebo,dynamic time window and counterfactual,difference-in-difference-in-differences,and PSM-DID estimation,the above conclusions were still valid.②Mechanism analysis showed that the Policy achieved energy saving and carbon reduction through the direct innovation intermediary effect of green invention patents as the carrier,and the indirect innovation mediation effect of the industrial structure upgrading effect caused by innovation achieved an energy-saving effect.③Heterogeneity analysis showed that the energy saving and carbon reduction rate of the Policy for coal-consuming provinces was 0.86%and 3.25%higher than that of non-coal-consuming provinces.The carbon reduction in the old industrial base city was 36.43%higher than that in the non-old industrial base,but the energy saving effect was 8.93%lower than that of the non-old industrial base.The range of energy saving and carbon reduction in non-resource-based cities was 31.30%and 74.95%higher than that in resource-based cities,respectively.④The results showed that it was necessary to strengthen the innovation investment and industrial structure upgrading in key areas such as big coal-consumption provinces,old industrial base cities,and resource-based cities,so as to give full play to the energy saving and

关 键 词：“大气十条”政策 节能降碳 创新中介效应 绿色发展 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]