天气对路段行程时间可靠性的影响分析  

Analysis of the influence of weather on the reliability of road travel time

作　　者：陈永君 刘聪 Chen Yongjun;Liu Cong(Gansu Transportation Science and Tecllnology Communication Center,Lanzhou 730000,China;Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省交通科技通信中心,兰州730000 [2]兰州交通大学,兰州730000

出　　处：《青海交通科技》2022年第3期20-26,共7页Qinghai Transportation Science and Technology

摘　　要：本文考虑出行时间的连续性和降雨程度不同建立了路段出行时间可靠性模型,并采用出租车GPS数据验证了该模型。拟合结果表明,兰州市不同降雨等级的城市道路出行时间分布具有相似性,且均符合对数正态分布。此外,研究表明,可以采用缓冲指数(BI)和缓冲指数变化率(BIVR)作为出行时间可靠性指标,判断不同降雨程度对出行时间变化的影响。整体而言,出租车在路段的行车时间可靠性会由于降雨的影响而增强,其增强效果会随着降雨量的增加而增强;城市次干路和支路受降雨天气的影响较主干路大;相比主干路,降雨对出租车在次干路和支路的路段行程时间可靠性略有降低。In this paper,the road segment travel time reliability model was established considering the continuity of travel time and the different degree of rainfall,and the model was verified by taxi GPS data.The fitting results show that the distribution of road travel time of different rainfall levels in Lanzhou is similar and all conform to the lognormal distribution.In addition,buffer index(BI)and buffer index(BIVR)variation ratio were used as travel time reliability indexes to judge the impact of different rainfall degree on travel time change.On the whole,the reliability of taxi travel time will be enhanced by rainfall,and its enhancement effect will be enhanced with the increase of rainfall.Urban secondary trunk roads and branch roads are more affected by rainfall than trunk roads.Compared with the trunk road,the reliability of taxi travel time in the secondary trunk road and branch road is slightly reduced during rainfall.

关 键 词：降雨等级 出租车GPS数据 对数正态分布模型 出行时间可靠性 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]