基于改进DGM(1,1)模型对管道壁结蜡厚度预测  

Prediction of wax thickness in pipeline wall based on modified DGM(1,1)model

作　　者：杨立功 YANG Ligong(PetroChina Huabei Oilfield Company,Renqiu,Hebei 062550,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气集团有限公司华北油田分公司,河北任丘062552

出　　处：《世界石油工业》2023年第2期57-63,共7页World Petroleum Industry

摘　　要：为研究管道壁结蜡沉积厚度随时间的变化规律,基于灰色理论模型建立了改进DGM (1, 1)模型,分别以室内环道实验和现场管道数据为例,引入弱化缓冲算子和平移变换提高原始序列的光滑性,并进行不同模型的检验和对比。结果表明,传统DGM (1, 1)模型的平均相对误差较大,经弱化缓冲算子处理后改进模型的误差大幅降低,且d^(2)更适合结蜡厚度这类短序列、宽间距序列的预测;对原始序列进行平移变换可提高序列光滑性,不同原始序列对平移变换函数的偏移量存在选择性;弱化缓冲算子对模型改进的效果远大于平移变换;应用改进GM (1, 1)模型对管道壁结蜡厚度进行预测是可行的,该方法具有一定的推广价值。In order to study the change of wax deposition thickness in pipeline wall with time,an modified DGM(1,1)model was established based on the grey theory model.Taking indoor loop experiment and field pipeline data as examples,the weakening buffer operator and translation transform were introduced to improve the smoothness of the original sequence,and the different models were tested and compared.The results show that the average relative error of the traditional DGM(1,1)model is large,and the error of the improved model is greatly reduced after the weakening buffer operator treatment,and the d^(2) operator is more suitable for predicting the wax thickness of short sequence and wide spacing sequence.Translation transformation of the original sequence can improve the smoothness of the sequence,and different original sequences have selectivity on the offset of translation transformation function.The effect of weakening buffer operator on model improvement is much better than that of translational transformation.It is feasible to use the modified GM(1,1)model to predict the wax thickness in pipeline wall,and this method has certain popularization value.

关 键 词：管道壁 DGM(1 1)模型 蜡沉积 结蜡厚度 弱化缓冲算子 平移变换 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]