危机回应的非预期效应:基于太湖蓝藻事件的分析  

Unintended Effects of Crisis Response:Analysis based on the Tai Hu Algae Crisis

作　　者：朱俊明 赵旭 薛澜[1] Zhu Junming;Zhao Xu;Xue Lan(School of Public Policy&Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2023年第2期128-139,174,共13页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(21&ZD104);清华大学文科建设“双高”计划项目(2021TSG08101);清华大学自主科研计划文科专项项目(2022THZWYY14)。

摘　　要：危机事件引致政府及时回应,进而推动制度改革与经济社会转型发展。但政府的危机回应能否以及如何在预期效果外产生有助于纾解危机背后政策元问题的其他政策效应,是政策设计与评估往往忽视的重要议题。围绕地方政府回应太湖蓝藻这一环境焦点事件的案例,结合对政府回应的定性梳理与准实验设计的量化评估,本文探索危机回应特征与企业创新这一非预期政策效应间的关系。研究结果显示,地方政府在迅速回应焦点事件以外持续且多样的政策回应特征,诱发了企业总体创新与绿色创新持续增长的非预期效应,从而纾解了危机背后环境与经济间长期矛盾的元问题。研究提出了政策元问题与非预期政策效应间的关系,识别了危机回应非预期效应的存在及触发条件,丰富了对危机回应政策效应及其实现机制的理解,并给出重要启示:危机后形成持续的回应机制可促进解决元问题的长期政策效果实现;充分理解政府持续回应的有效性及其机制,是推动政策问题根本解决的关键。Crisis events induce prompt and efctive responses from the government,thereby promoting institutional reform and social-economic transition.It is important yet often overlooked in policy design and evaluation whether erisis responses t0 generale effeets other than the intended policy outcome that help solve the meta-problem causing crises.The objeetive of this paper is to ilustrute whether govermment responses induce such unintended effects to solve the meta-problem.Based on the responses from a local government to the fo-cusing event of Tai Hu Algae Crisis,this paper combines qualitative analysis of government response process and quasi-experimental design for quantitative evaluation.In particular,it investigales the relationship between the characteristics of crisis response and the unexpected policy effeet of local fimm innovation.The quasi-ex-perimental design employs a triple difference estimator,exploring differences in province,river basin,and time.This research finds that:Beyond rapid responses to the focusing event,local governments performed sustained and diversifed poliey responses,and such responses induce long-term unintended policy flects on the in-crease in both general and green inmovation of local firms,which reconeile the meta-problem of longstanding conflict between the environment and the economy behind the crisis.However further research is needed to in-vestigate the generalizability of unintended effects from crisis responses to solve meta-problems.a well a re-lated conditions and mechanisms,by exploring other cases.Nonetheless,an enduring response mechanism after the erises may lead to long--term policy effeets to solve the mela-problem behind erises.Further understanding the effectiveness and mechanism of continuous goverument responses is essential to solving various policy problems.This paper analy tcally ilustrates the potential relationship between poliey meta-problems and unin-tended effects,and empirieally identifies the existence of and triggering conditions for unintended electls o

关 键 词：环境危机 政策回应 政策评估 企业创新 元问题 

分 类 号：D035[政治法律—政治学]