中国天山雪崩危险区划及其时空动态  

Zoning of avalanche hazard and its spatial and temporal patterns in the Tianshan Mountains of China

作　　者：秦启勇 李雪梅 郝建盛 张博 李秋萍 龚志远 QIN Qiyong;LI Xuemei;HAO Jiansheng;ZHANG Bo;LI Qiuping;GONG Zhiyuan(Faculty of Geomatics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring,Lanzhou 730070,China;National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring,Lanzhou 730070,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute,Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室,甘肃兰州730070 [3]地理国情监测技术应用国家地方联合工程研究中心,甘肃兰州730070 [4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2023年第2期117-124,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42261026,41761014,41971094,42161025,42104096);甘肃省教育厅:高等学校创新基金项目(2022A-041);兰州交通大学优秀平台支持(201806);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(20JR10RA443);甘肃省环保专项(2020zfcg02072)。

摘　　要：雪崩危险评估是雪崩风险管理的基础,是雪崩防治、土地利用规划和道路选线等工程设计必不可少的环节。对雪崩危险系统分析和评估并编制雪崩危险图集将有助于高寒山区交通规划管理、土地资源利用和矿山建设规划,是高寒山区资源开发和区域发展的基本科学依据。构建雪崩危险评估体系,通过层次分析法将地形和雪深等参数在地理信息系统中整合识别雪崩危险区,评估天山雪崩危险性,在此基础上分析雪崩危险时空格局变化。结果表明:1)无危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区和极高危险区占比69.38%、16.33%、6.5%、1.39%和6.4%;2)整体上雪崩危险在雪季中呈现出单一峰值模式,雪崩危害程度从11月份开始增加,在2月份达到峰值,然后下降,1—2月份随着积雪深度增加,斜坡上的积雪在重力作用下使其稳定性低,导致2月份雪崩频发,高雪崩破坏和释放频率,使2月份成为雪崩危害最严重的时期。因此,应在2月份加强对雪崩的预防和管理,早期发出警告,将雪崩危险的影响程度降到最低,以防止灾难性后果的发生。Avalanche hazard assessment is the basis of avalanche risk management and an essential segment in engineering design such as avalanche prevention,land use planning and road alignment.The analysis and assessment of avalanche hazard system and the compilation of avalanche hazard atlas will contribute to the traffic planning and management,land resource utilization and mine construction planning in alpine mountains.And it also is the scientific basis for resource development and regional development in alpine mountains.The assessment system of avalanche hazard was constructed to identify avalanche hazard areas in Chinese Tianshan Mountains by integrating parameters such as terrain and snow depth in GIS through analytic hierarchy process.On this basis,spatial and temporal pattern change of avalanche hazard was analyzed.The results indicate that:1)No hazard zone,low hazard zone,medium hazard zone,high hazard zone and very high hazard zone accounted for 69.38%,16.33%,6.5%,1.39%and 6.4%,respectively.2)Overall avalanche risk showed a single peak pattern during the snow season.With the degree of avalanche hazard increasing from November,it peaked in February and then declined.As the snow depth increased in January and February,the snow on the slope was made less stable by gravity,leading to frequent avalanches in February.With high avalanche damage and release frequency,February was the most severe period for avalanche hazard.Therefore,avalanche prevention and management should be strengthened in February,and early warnings should be issued to minimize the impact of avalanche hazard,so as to prevent catastrophic consequences.

关 键 词：雪崩 危险等级 层次分析法 时空动态 中国天山 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]