9km水平分辨率下KF积云对流参数化方案对台风模拟的影响  

Influence of KF cumulus convective parameterization scheme on typhoon simulation at 9 km horizontal resolution

作　　者：邬贤文 郑运霞[2] 刘琼[1] 魏煜 陈勇航[1] 赵兵科[2] WU Xianwen;ZHENG Yunxia;LIU Qiong;WEI Yu;CHEN Yonghang;ZHAO Bingke(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Donghua University,Shanghai 201620,China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China;Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200233,China)

机构地区：[1]东华大学环境科学与工程学院,上海201620 [2]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [3]上海电气风电集团股份有限公司,上海200233

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2023年第2期178-187,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506305,2018YFC1506303);上海市科委计划项目(19dz1200101);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41975029)。

摘　　要：积云对流参数化方案对台风模拟的准确性有着重要影响,而在分辨率1~10 km内使用积云对流参数是否能够改善台风模拟仍然存在争议,因此,本研究基于COAWST(coupled ocean atmosphere wave sediment transport, COAWST)耦合模式,针对登陆广东地区的11个西行台风,在9 km分辨率下是否使用KF积云对流参数,设计了2组模拟方案,并将结果与中国气象局热带气旋资料中心发布的最佳路径数据进行对比。从台风路径上看,在9 km分辨率上使用KF方案模拟得到的误差在统计结果中最小,从模拟台风强度的误差来看,2种方案的差距不大,综合考量台风路径和强度可以认为使用KF积云对流参数化方案模拟的效果更佳。KF积云对流参数方案模拟的副热带高压更强,造成模拟的台风路径相对南偏。2种方案的台风内核区对流不稳定的高度接近,是否使用KF积云对流参数化方案与台风强弱没有一定的关系,而台风强度与对流底层的台风眼壁垂直速度有关。Cumulus convection parameterization schemes have an important impact on the accuracy of typhoon simulations,and it is still controversial whether using cumulus convection parameters within 1~10 km resolution can improve typhoon simulations.Therefore,in this study,two sets of simulation scenarios,whether to use KF cumulus convection parameter at 9 km resolution or not,based on COAWST(coupled ocean atmosphere wave sediment transport)were designed for 11 westbound typhoons landing in Guangdong region,and the results were compared with the best track data released by the Tropical Cyclone Data Center of China Meteorological Administration.As to the typhoon tracks,the simulation using the KF scheme at 9 km resolution yielded the smallest error according to the statistical results,and using the KF cumulus convective parameterization scheme can be considered better simulation considering the typhoon tracks and intensity.It is found that the subtropical high pressure simulated with the KF cumulus convective parameterization scheme is stronger than that without it,which leads to a relatively southerly simulated typhoon track.The height of convective instability in the typhoon inner core region is close for both schemes,and there is no certain relationship between whether to use the KF cumulus convective parameterization scheme and the typhoon strength,which is related to the vertical velocity of the typhoon eye wall at the convective bottom.

关 键 词：台风路径 台风强度 KF积云对流参数 COAWST模式 模拟评估 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]