Contact pattern,current immune barrier,and pathogen virulence determines the optimal strategy of further vaccination  

作　　者：Xiaohao Guo Ziyan Liu Shiting Yang Zeyu Zhao Yichao Guo Guzainuer Abudurusuli Shanlu Zhao Ge Zeng Shixiong Hu Kaiwei Luo Tianmu Chen 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics,School of Public Health,Xiamen University,Xiamen City,361102,Fujian Province,People's Republic of China [2]Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,405 Furong Middle Road Section One,Kaifu District,Changsha City,410001,Hunan Province,People's Republic of China

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2023年第1期192-202,共11页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFC2301604);the Research Project on Education and Teaching Reform of Undergraduate Universities of Fujian Province,China(FBJG20210260);the Self-supporting Program of Guangzhou Laboratory(Grant No.SRPG22-007);the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(Grant INV-005834 to T.C.);the Research on the Precise Prevention and Control System of SARS-Cov-2(Grant No.35022022YJ07,Topic No.2022YJ-3).

摘　　要：Background:The current outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 has caused a seriousdisease burden worldwide.Vaccines are an important factor to sustain the epidemic.Although with a relatively high-vaccination worldwide,the decay of vaccine efficacy andthe arising of new variants lead us to the challenge of maintaining a sufficient immunebarrier to protect the population.Method:A case-contact tracking data in Hunan,China,is used to estimate the contactpattern of cases for scenarios including school,workspace,etc,rather than ordinary susceptible population.Based on the estimated vaccine coverage and efficacy,a multi-groupvaccinated-exposed-presymptomatic-symptomatic-asymptomatic-removed model(VEFIAR)with 8 age groups,with each partitioned into 4 vaccination status groups isdeveloped.The optimal dose-wise vaccinating strategy is optimized based on the currentlyestimated immunity barrier of coverage and efficacy,using the greedy algorithm thatminimizes the cumulative cases,population size of hospitalization and fatality respectivelyin a certain future interval.Parameters of Delta and Omicron variants are used respectivelyin the optimization.Results:The estimated contact matrices of cases showed a concentration on middle ages,and has compatible magnitudes compared to estimations from contact surveys in otherstudies.The VEFIAR model is numerically stable.The optimal controled vaccination strategy requires immediate vaccination on the un-vaccinated high-contact population of age30e39 to reduce the cumulative cases,and is stable with different basic reproductionnumbers(R_(0)).As for minimizing hospitalization and fatality,the optimized strategy requires vaccination on the un-vaccinated of both aged 30e39 of high contact frequencyand the vulnerable older.Conclusion:The objective of reducing transmission requires vaccination in age groups ofthe highest contact frequency,with more priority for un-vaccinated than un-fully or fullyvaccinated.The objective of reducing total hospitalization and fatality requires not only tor

关 键 词：VACCINE Allocation strategy SARS-CoV-2 Optimal control Immune barrier Contact pattern Greedy algorithm 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]