日温差对湖南省老年人缺血性脑卒中入院人次的影响  

Effect of diurnal temperature range on the number of elderly inpatients with ischemic stroke in Hunan Province

作　　者：周浩 王仕文 史静琤[1] 邓静[1] 史千山 赖静敏 肖桂真 童卓雅 Zhou Hao;Wang Shiwen;Shi Jingcheng;Deng Jing;Shi Qianshan;Lai Jingmin;Xiao Guizhen;Tong Zhuoya(Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,Xiangya School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078,China;Information Statistics Center of Health Commission of Hunan Province,Changsha 410008,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学湘雅公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,长沙410078 [2]湖南省卫生健康委信息统计中心,长沙410008

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2023年第4期528-534,共7页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金(2020JJ4772);国家科技基础资源调查专项(2018FY100900);湖南省自然科学基金(2021JJ30893)。

摘　　要：目的研究日温差对湖南省老年人缺血性脑卒中入院人次的影响。方法收集湖南省122个区/县2019年1至12月老年人缺血性脑卒中患者的人口学和疾病资料,气象数据资料,空气质量资料,人口、经济和卫生资源数据。采用分布滞后非线性模型分析日温差与老年人缺血性脑卒中入院人次的关系,以及不同季节日温差、极高日温差、极低日温差累积滞后效应。结果2019年湖南省老年人缺血性脑卒中入院152875人次,日温差与老年人缺血性脑卒中入院人次呈非线性关系,且存在一定的滞后性。春冬两季,随着日温差减小,老年人缺血性脑卒中入院风险增加(P_(趋势)<0.001、P_(趋势)=0.002);夏季,随着日温差增大,入院风险增加(P_(趋势)=0.024);秋季,日温差的变化不会引起入院风险的变化(P_(趋势)=0.089)。除秋季极低温差滞后效应不明显外,其余季节在极低、极高温差下均呈现滞后效应。结论夏季高日温差、春冬两季低日温差会增加老年人缺血性脑卒中入院风险,且在以上三季极低、极高温差下老年人缺血性脑卒中入院风险均会出现滞后。Objective To study the effect of diurnal temperature range on the number of elderly inpatients with ischemic stroke in Hunan Province.Method Demographic and disease data,meteorological data,air quality data,population,economic and health resource data of elderly inpatients with ischemic stroke were collected in 122 districts/counties of Hunan Province from January to December 2019.The relationships between the diurnal temperature range and the number of elderly inpatients with ischemic stroke were analyzed by using the distributed lag non-linear model,including the cumulative lag effect of the diurnal temperature range in different seasons,extremely high diurnal temperature range and extremely low diurnal temperature range.Results In 2019,152875 person-times were admitted to the hospital for ischemic stroke in the elderly in Hunan Province.There was a non-linear relationship between the diurnal temperature range and the number of elderly patients with ischemic stroke,with different lag periods.In spring and winter,with the decrease in diurnal temperature range,the risk of admission of elderly patients with ischemic stroke increased(P_(trend)<0.001,P_(trend)=0.002);in summer,with the increase in diurnal temperature range,the risk of admission of elderly patients with ischemic stroke increased(P_(trend)=0.024);in autumn,the change in the diurnal temperature range would not cause a change in admission risk(P_(trend)=0.089).Except that the lag effect of the extremely low diurnal temperature range in autumn was not obvious,the lag effect occurred in other seasons under extremely low and extremely high diurnal temperature ranges.Conclusion The high diurnal temperature range in summer and the low diurnal temperature range in spring and winter will increase the risk of admission of elderly patients with ischemic stroke,and the risk of admission of elderly patients with ischemic stroke will lag under the extremely low and extremely high diurnal temperature ranges in the above three seasons.

关 键 词：卒中 日温差 分布滞后非线性模型 横断面研究 

分 类 号：R743.3[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]