基于云模型和TODIM的应急预案评估方法研究  

Research on evaluation method of emergency plan based on cloud model and TODIM

作　　者：李磊[1,2] 任俞霏[1,2] 韦茜 吴艳华 LI Lei;REN Yufei;WEI Qian;WU Yanhua(College of Engineering,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua Zhejiang 321004,China;Key Laboratory of Urban Rail Transit Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Technology and Equipment of Zhejiang Province,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua Zhejiang 321004,China;Linhai East Station of Transportation Department,Zhejiang Communications Group Jinwen Railway Development Co.,Ltd.,Linhai Zhejiang 317000,China;Institute of Computing Technology,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学工学院,浙江金华321004 [2]浙江师范大学浙江省城市轨道交通智能运维技术与装备重点实验室,浙江金华321004 [3]浙江交通集团金温铁道开发有限公司运输部临海东站,浙江临海317000 [4]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司电子计算技术研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第4期182-188,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：中国高速铁路安全治理战略研究项目(2019-ZD-39);金华市公益性技术应用研究项目(2022-4-040)。

摘　　要：为提高应急预案评估的科学性,提出基于云模型和TODIM法的应急预案评估新方法,利用云模型表征语言评估信息,通过得分函数处理云值,提出基于云值的主客观权重计算方法,以弥补单一赋权法求解评估指标权重的不足;基于云模型和TODIM法对候选应急预案进行优劣排序,并验证本文方法的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明:基于云模型和TODIM法的应急预案评估新方法计算出的数值结果合理、准确,研究结果可为相关部门提高应急管理能力提供借鉴。In order to improve the scientificity of emergency response plan evaluation,a new method of emergency plan evaluation based on the cloud model and TODIM method was proposed.The cloud model was used to represent the linguistic evaluation information,the score function was used to process the cloud values,and the calculation method of subjective and objective weights based on cloud values was adopted to overcome the shortcomings of single weighting method in solving the weights of evaluation indexes during the evaluation process.Based on the cloud model and TODIM method,the candidate emergency plans were ranked in advantages and disadvantages,and the feasibility and effectiveness of this method were verified.The results showed that the numerical results calculated by the new method of emergency plan evaluation based on cloud model and TODIM method were reasonable and accurate.The research results can provide reference for the related departments to improve the ability of emergency management.

关 键 词：应急预案 评估 云模型 TODIM 指标权重 

分 类 号：U298[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] X913.4[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]