基于参数调整的山东生态足迹时空演变研究  

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecological Footprint in Shandong Province Based on Parameter Adjustment

作　　者：李明鸿 卢辞 Li Minghong;Lu Ci(School of Economics,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《西南林业大学学报（社会科学）》2023年第3期66-74,共9页Journal of Southwest Forestry University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：安徽省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(SK2019ZD41)资助。

摘　　要：基于生态足迹模型,对均衡因子和产量因子进行时序调整,计算并分析山东省2008—2019年的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力,采用地理探测器探究生态足迹的影响因素,评价山东生态安全状况。结果表明:山东省2008—2019年人均生态足迹呈V型变化,17个地级市的人均生态足迹具有地域差异性,呈现出东部>中部>西部,人均生态足迹的高值区从西部向东部、内陆向沿海转移;人均生态承载力变化较平稳,高值区主要集中在中东部地区;生态压力处于严重不安全状态,人均生态盈亏整体处于赤字状态,2014年赤字情况最轻,2018年赤字情况最严重;生态足迹影响因素为人均GDP、人口总数、城镇化、粮食产量、水产养殖面积、万元GDP能耗,其中万元GDP能耗的解释力是主导因素,因子之间的相互作用对生态足迹的驱动力明显增强。基于此,提出减少化石能源使用,强化水生环境保护与修复,调整人口规模和倡导绿色消费等建议。Based on the ecological footprint model,the equivalence factor and yield factor are adjusted in time series,the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity of Shandong Province from 2008 to 2019 are calculated and analyzed.Geographic detectors are used to explore the ecological footprint.influencing factors,and evaluate ecological security in Shandong Province.The results show that the change of per capita ecological footprint in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2019 showed a V-shaped trend,and the per capita ecological footprint of 17 cities had regional differences,showing east>central>west,the high value area of per capita ecological footprint during the study period from west to east,inland to coast;the change trend of per capita ecological carrying capacity is stable,and the high value is mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions;the ecology is extremely unsafe,the per capita ecological profit and loss in Shandong Province was in deficit as a whole.The deficit in 2014 was the lightest,and the deficit was the most serious in 2018;the factors affecting the ecological footprint of Shandong Province during the study period were GDP per capita,total population,urbanization,grain output,aquaculture area,and energy consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP.The explanatory power of energy consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP was the dominant factor.The driving force on the ecological footprint is significantly enhanced after the interaction between them.Based on this,it is proposed to reduce the use of fossil energy,focus on the protection and restoration of aquatic environment,adjust the population scale and advocate green consumption.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态承载力 生态安全 地理探测器 山东省 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]