气候变化背景下基于自然解决方案的雄安新区雨洪管理模式  

Stormwater management model in the Xiong’an New Area based on nature⁃based solutions in the context of climate change

作　　者：邢开成 贾桂梅[3] 刘咪咪[2] 李国庆 XING Kaicheng;JIA Guimei;LIU Mimi;LI Guoqing(Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050021,China;Hebei Provincial Climate Center,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050021,China;Baoding Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province,Baoding Hebei 071000,China;School of Ethology and Sociology,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,河北石家庄050021 [2]河北省气候中心,河北石家庄050021 [3]保定市气象局,河北保定071000 [4]中央民族大学民族学与社会学学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2023年第4期13-22,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：科技部2018年国家重点研发计划“京津冀超大城市和城市群的气候变化影响和适应研究”(批准号:2018YFA0606300)。

摘　　要：气候变化背景下,基于自然的解决方案(NbS)是人类社会应对气候风险与挑战,构建科学规范的管理体系和高效绿色的社会经济体系,实现可持续的高质量发展目标的先进理念,为高标准规划建设的雄安新区提供了根本遵循和重要方向,为雨洪管理模式研究提供了重要的现实场景。文中介绍了基于自然的解决方案的概念与发展历程,梳理了实践基于自然的解决方案的原则和实施途径,系统分析了气候变化导致极端气候事件频发的背景下,雄安新区暴雨洪涝灾害的特点和社会经济快速发展带来的水资源供需紧张的形势。基于区域气候模式进行的中等温室气体排放情景(RCP4.5),25 km水平分辨率的1980—2099年数值模拟结果,以1986—2005年为基准期,进行了雄安新区未来气候变化预估分析和暴雨洪涝风险评估。根据雄安新区雨洪管理和应对极端降水面临的形势,结合雄安新区未来社会经济发展和城乡生态空间格局以及体现“蓝绿交织、清新明亮、水城共融的生态城市”理念与建设目标,提出强化雄安新区的气候风险管理、降低极端降水风险的自然解决方案,从系统性规划、结构性设计和工程性措施三个维度,给出基于自然解决方案的雄安新区雨洪管理模式:(1)坚持全流域生态保护与修复总体规划,提高系统性气候治理能力;(2)倡导城市级多尺度竖向系统设计,提高城市韧性和承载能力;(3)坚持趋利避害的总基调,强化生态型基础设施建设。在有效的工程性、制度性防御措施的基础上,在雄安新区雨洪管理工作中积极贯彻基于自然的解决方案理念,有利于充分发掘和合理利用雄安新区特殊的水系条件、城淀一体的环境优势,趋利避害,最大程度降低极端降水对城市稳定运行和人民生命财产安全的影响。In the context of climate change,nature-based solutions(NbS)are an advanced concept for human society to cope with cli⁃mate risks and challenges;they can also help to build a scientific and standardized management system and an efficient and green so⁃cial and economic system for the achievement of sustainable and high-quality development goals.Besides,it provides the fundamental guidelines and directions for the Xiong’an New Area,which has been planned and constructed with high standards and provides an im⁃portant realistic scenario for the study of stormwater management modes.This paper introduces the concept and development process of NbS,summarizes its principles and approaches,and systematically analyzes the characteristics of rainstorm and flood disasters in the Xiong’an New Area and the tight situation of water supply and demand caused by rapid socioeconomic development against the back⁃ground of frequent extreme weather events caused by climate change.Based on the moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario(RCP4.5)of the regional climate model,the numerical simulation results of 1980—2099 with a horizontal resolution of 25 km,and the reference period of 1986—2005,the future climate change prediction analysis and rainstorm and flood risk assessment in the Xiong’an New Area were carried out.According to the Xiong’an New Area’s stormwater management and the current extreme rainfall situation,the paper combines the future social and economic development and urban-rural ecological spatial pattern of the Xiong’an New Area,as well as the concept and construction goals of‘building an ecological city where human and nature coexist harmoniously in the lake city featuring blue sky and verdant fields,’and proposes nature-based solutions to strengthen climate risk management in the area and reduce the risk of extreme precipitation.The proposed stormwater management model for the Xiong’an New Area based on NbS in⁃cludes three dimensions:①We should adhere to the overall plan of ecological

关 键 词：气候变化 雄安新区 雨洪管理 自然解决方案 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]