碳减排成本代际均等化:理论与证据  

Inter-temperal Parity of Carbon Emission Reduction Costs:Theory and Evidence

作　　者：郑新业[1] 吴施美 郭伯威 ZHENG Xinye;WU Shimei;GUO Bowei(School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China;School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,100872 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,410079

出　　处：《经济研究》2023年第2期107-123,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72141308,72103061,72203218)的资助。

摘　　要：碳中和目标下减排任务的远近统筹是中国实现经济高质量发展的重要议题。本文基于Hotelling法则,以代际贴现效用之和最大化为目标,减排总量为约束,构建代际减排模型。研究发现减排代际均等化是使社会总效用最大化的必要条件,即在排除经济增长的影响后减排的边际效用、净收益(影子价格)以及碳排放价格的现值在不同时期均应相等,并进一步分析了温升目标、贴现率、技术进步等相关参数变化对减排路径以及碳定价的影响。最后,以中国为研究对象,探究了为实现碳中和的最优减排路径,提出应当在前期少减排,将更多的减排任务留给后期,从而将碳中和目标伴生的经济损失控制在GDP总量的0.2%—0.4%,并基于此探讨了不同减排轨迹下的产业结构调整路径。The Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to“work actively and prudently toward the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality”.It also emphasized that“based on China's energy and resource endowment,we will advance initiatives to reach peak carbon emissions in a well-planned and phased way in line with the principle of building the new before discarding the old”.The proposal not only reflects the long-term and systematic nature of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,but also emphasizes the importance of reasonable arrangements in the process of achieving it.Being the world's largest developing country,China has been prominently suffering from insufficient and unbalanced development.Therefore,the realization of carbon neutrality faces trade-offs among carbon reduction,economic development,and a just transition.On the one hand,the carbon neutrality goal has become a new constraint on the balance between emission reduction and economic growth,which needs to be solved urgently.Exploring an optimal emission reduction pathway for China and linking its emission reduction tasks with long-term development goals are important in guaranteeing the realization of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and the second centennial goal.The latter aims to build a modern socialist country that is prosperous,strong and culturally advanced and harmonious by 2049.On the other hand,the path of emission reduction is related to the welfare distribution among different generations and the rights of future generations,meaning that the implementation of climate policy needs to fully consider inter-temporal parity when carrying out staged decomposition and rational allocation of emission reduction tasks.This paper focuses on answering the question of when and how to reduce emissions,and by how much.This paper has the following contributions.First,it realizes the theoretical innovation by introducing inter-temporal parity into the carbon abatement model.Few studie

关 键 词：碳中和 经济模型 代际均等 产业结构调整 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]