基于蒙特卡罗法的建筑工人不安全行为风险评估  

Risk assessment of unsafe behaviors of construction workers based on Monte Carlo method

作　　者：田水承 郭谦[1,2] 张江江 范彬彬 TIAN Shuicheng;GUO Qian;ZHANG Jiangjiang;FAN Binbin(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China;Institute of Safety and Emergency Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西安科技大学安全与应急管理研究所,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《西安科技大学学报》2023年第2期373-379,共7页Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51874237);国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目(U1904210);国家社会科学基金项目(20XGL025)。

摘　　要：为加强对建筑工人不安全行为的监管,减少不必要人员伤亡和经济损失,以建筑施工过程中4类高频事故(物体打击、坍塌、起重伤害、高处坠落)为研究对象,通过统计分析4类高频建筑事故起数以及各类不安全行为数量,结合蒙特卡罗法建立建筑工人不安全行为风险评估模型。运用Crystal Ball 11.1软件模拟分析可得各类事故的行为风险后果值分布与行为风险累计概率分布,进而对各类不安全行为进行敏感度和行为不确定性分析。结果表明:4类建筑事故中的建筑工人行为风险存在明显差异,起重伤害行为风险值最大,高处坠落行为风险值最小;其中,忽视使用个人防护用品用具、造成安全装置失效、冒险进入危险场所、“操作错误,忽视安全,忽视警告”这4种不安全行为敏感度值都在30%以上,对4类建筑事故的安全行为风险值影响较大。基于此针对性地提出建筑事故行为风险防范措施。In order to strengthen the supervision of unsafe behaviors of construction workers and reduce unnecessary casualties and economic losses,this paper took four types of high-frequency accidents in construction process as the research object:object striking,collapse,lifting injury,high falling.The number of high-frequency construction accidents and the number of various unsafe behaviors were combined with the Monte Carlo method to establish a risk assessment model for unsafe behaviors of construction workers.Crystal Ball 11.1 software was used to simulate and analyze the behavioral risk consequence values distribution and cumulative probability distribution of the behavioral risk of various accidents,and then the sensitivity analysis and behavioral uncertainty analysis of various unsafe behaviors were carried out.According to the research results,there are significant differences in the behavioral risks of construction workers at these four types of construction accidents,the behavioral risk of lifting injury is the greatest,and the behavior of high falling is the least.And ignoring the use of personal protective equipment,causing the failure of safety devices,venturing into dangerous places,“operational errors,ignoring safety,and ignoring warnings”are all four types of unsafe behaviors with sensitivity values above 30%,which has a great influence on the risk values of the safety behaviors of the four types of construction accidents.Thus,the paper puts forward some risk prevention measures about construction accident behaviors.

关 键 词：建筑工人 蒙特卡罗 不安全行为 行为风险 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]