规模以上工业企业能源消费碳排放及情景分析——以淮海经济区徐州市为例  

Energy Carbon Emissions and Scenario Analysis of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size:A Case Study of Xuzhou City in the Huaihai Economic Zone

作　　者：吴蒙 秦云虎[1] 王双美 宋雪娟[3] 马萍 曹泊 冯乐乐 WU Meng;QIN Yunhu;WANG Shuangmei;SONG Xuejuan;MA Ping;CAO Bo;FENG Lele(Jiangsu Mineral Resources and Geological Design and Research Institute,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221006;Key Laboratory of Coalbed Methane Resources and Reservoir Formation Process,Ministry of Education(China University of Mining and Technology),Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221008;School of Civil Engineering,Xuzhou University of Technology,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221018;Xuzhou Municipal Bureau of statistics,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221000;School of Safety and Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221116)

机构地区：[1]江苏地质矿产设计研究院,江苏徐州221006 [2]煤层气资源与成藏过程教育部重点实验室(中国矿业大学),江苏徐州221008 [3]徐州工程学院土木工程学院,江苏徐州221018 [4]徐州市统计局,江苏徐州221000 [5]中国矿业大学安全工程学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《中国煤炭地质》2023年第4期59-64,共6页Coal Geology of China

基　　金：徐州市科技局社会发展重点项目(KC21147);中国煤炭地质总局科技基金项目(ZMKJ-2021-ZX02-04)。

摘　　要：工业能源消费碳排放研究对指导区域CO_(2)减排和优化碳达峰路径至关重要,选取1995—2021年淮海经济区徐州市的统计年鉴数据,通过TAPIO脱钩模型、STIRPAT模型和SPSS分析软件研究了徐州市规模以上工业企业能源消费CO_(2)排放量与经济增长之间的脱钩关系,构建了工业能源消费CO_(2)排放量预测模型以及预测了2022—2030年不同情景下CO_(2)排放量。结果表明:徐州市规模以上工业企业能源消费CO_(2)排放量呈先缓慢上升、后快速上升,最后保持稳定的趋势,工业能源消费CO_(2)排放量从1995年的2 596.18万t增长到2021年的9 050.43万t,年增长率约为11.11%。徐州市工业能源消费CO_(2)排放量与经济发展之间以弱脱钩和强脱钩为主。基准情景下,2030年徐州市规模以上工业企业能源消费CO_(2)排放量为12 409.25万t,产业结构优化情景下,徐州市达峰时工业CO_(2)排放量为11 855.19万t,能源结构优化情景下,2030年工业CO_(2)排放量为10 754.78万t,多要素优化情景下,到2030年工业企业能源消费碳排放量为10 274.59万t。同时,指出加速产业结构升级、发展战略性新兴产业,加快能源结构机制改革,大力发展清洁能源,稳步推进区域“双碳”目标的实现。The research on carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption is crucial for guiding regional CO_(2) emissions reduction and optimizing carbon peak paths.Selecting the statistical yearbook data of Xuzhou City in the Huaihai Economic Zone from 1995 to 2021,the decoupling relationship between energy consumption CO_(2) emissions of industrial enterprises above designated size and economic growth in Xuzhou City was studied using the TAPIO decoupling model,STIRPAT model,and SPSS analysis software,We have constructed a prediction model for CO_(2) emissions from industrial energy consumption and predicted CO_(2) emissions under different scenarios from 2022 to 2030.The results show that the CO_(2) emissions from energy consumption of industrial enterprises above designated size in Xuzhou City have shown a slow increase,followed by a rapid increase,and finally maintained a stable trend.CO_(2) emissions from industrial energy consumption have increased from 25.9618 million tons in 1995 to 90.5043 million tons in 2021,with an annual growth rate of approximately 11.11%.The relationship between CO_(2) emissions from industrial energy consumption and economic development in Xuzhou City is mainly characterized by weak decoupling and strong decoupling.Under the baseline scenario,the energy consumption CO_(2) emissions of in-dustrial enterprises above designated size in Xuzhou City in 2030 were 124.0925 million tons.Under the industrial structure optimization scenario,the peak industrial CO_(2) emissions of Xuzhou City were 118.5519 million tons.Under the energy structure optimization scenario,the industrial CO_(2) emissions in 2030 were 107.5478 million tons.Under the multi factor optimization scenario,the energy consumption carbon emissions of industrial enterprises were 102.7459 million tons by 2030.Meanwhile,it is pointed out to accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure,develop strategic emerging industries,accelerate the reform of energy structure mechanism,vigorously develop clean energy,and steadily promote t

关 键 词：CO_(2)排放 工业能源消费 脱钩关系 预测模型 情景分析 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196