长江经济带城市碳排放及其影响因素的时空异质性研究  

Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of Urban Carbon Emissions and Their Influencing Factors in Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：李子杰 徐进亮[4] 王健[1] 冯雨豪 吴群[2,3] LI Zi-jie;XU Jin-liang;WANG Jian;FENG Yu-hao;WU Qun;无(College of Public Administration,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;China Institute of Resources,Environment and Development,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;Realty Research Center,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;School of Architecture,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095 [2]南京农业大学中国资源环境与发展研究院,江苏南京210095 [3]南京农业大学不动产研究中心,江苏南京210095 [4]东南大学建筑学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2023年第3期525-536,共12页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42071247);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71233004)。

摘　　要：长江经济带作为国家生态文明建设的先行示范带,肩负着率先实现“碳达峰”“碳中和”的重大使命。掌握长江经济带城市碳排放及其影响因素,对长江经济带实现“双碳”目标具有重大意义。基于IPCC系数计算2008~2018年长江经济带110个地级及以上城市的碳排放情况,利用空间自相关对其进行时空格局分布的研究,构建地理加权回归模型探究不同区位城市碳排放影响因素的时空异质性并揭示原因。结果显示:2008~2018年碳排总量呈放缓态势,其重心逐年向中西部迁移;10a间长江经济带城市的碳排放在空间上呈现显著正相关性及集聚性,且相关性呈波动下降趋势;碳排放影响因素差异明显,影响大小为:人均用电量<人口数量<建设用地<产业结构,在空间格局上,建设用地和人均用电量的影响程度均向东偏移,产业结构和人口数量的空间格局基本稳定。研究结果表明,应从产业结构低碳转型、合理规划建设用地、优化人口空间格局和谋划新能源发电等领域进一步加快实现长江经济带的“双碳”目标。Yangtze River Economic Belt,as the leading demonstration belt of the national ecological civilization construction,shoulders the major mission of taking the lead in realizing“carbon peak”and“carbon neutrality”.Mastering the carbon emissions of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and its influencing factors is of great significance to the realization of the“dual carbon”goal of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Based on the IPCC coefficient,the carbon emissions of 110 prefecture-level and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2018 were calculated,and the spatial and temporal pattern distribution was studied by using spatial autocorrelation,and a geographically weighted regression model was constructed to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions in cities in different locations.Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and revealing why.The results show that from 2008 to 2018,the total carbon emissions showed a slowing trend,and its center of gravity shifted to the central and western regions year by year;the carbon emissions of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a significant positive spatial correlation and agglomeration in the past 10 years,and the correlation fluctuated There is a downward trend;there are obvious differences in the influencing factors of carbon emissions,and the impact size is:per capita electricity consumption<population<construction land<industrial structure.The spatial pattern of structure and population is basically stable.The research results show that the realization of the“dual carbon”goal of the Yangtze River Economic Belt should be further accelerated from the fields of low-carbon transformation of industrial structure,rational planning of construction land,optimization of population spatial pattern,and planning of new energy power generation.

关 键 词：长江经济带 碳排放 影响因素 地理加权回归 时空异质性 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F127[经济管理—世界经济]