中国上市公司解禁与业绩说明会语调操纵  

Lockup expiration and tone management of earnings communication conferences in Chinese listed companies

作　　者：黄晓迪 曾燕[1] 戴芸[1] 汪寿阳[2,3] HUANG Xiaodi;ZENG Yan;DAI Yun;WANG Shouyang(Lingnan College,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510220,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广州510220 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [3]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100049

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2023年第3期684-705,共22页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(71721001);国家自然科学基金(71803201);广东省自然科学基金(2022A1515011472);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD22CYJ17)。

摘　　要：管理层在上市公司业绩说明会中的语调因具有实时性和互动性,难以事先完全准备,因此被证明具有预测未来业绩的信息增量,从而会引起显著的市场反应.本文选取上市公司限售股解禁事件,研究业绩说明会中是否会因限售股股东的重大得利驱动产生管理层语调操纵现象,并创新性地探究了业绩说明会管理层语调操纵的时机、诱因、目的和效果:1)时机:在控制了公司业绩表现的基础上,解禁前最近一次举办的业绩说明会相比于其它时期的业绩说明会,管理层语调显著更加积极;2)诱因:解禁前业绩说明会的异常语调与限售股股东减持动机显著正相关;3)目的:解禁前业绩说明会的异常语调与公司未来业绩无关,说明异常语调无信息增量,管理层企图通过过分积极的语调来误导市场;4)效果:市场对解禁前业绩说明会的异常语调反应平平.上述结果表明,当涉及重大相关利益时,例如限售股解禁事件发生时,即便是实时互动性强的业绩说明会,也会出现管理层语调操纵现象.然而,由于投资者的理性预期,解禁前的管理层语调操纵并不能达到误导市场的目的,这也说明了中国金融市场具有一定的有效性.By providing direct dialogue and real-time interaction between investors and managers,tone at earnings communication conferences is difficult to fully prepare and is proven to be predictive of future performance and can result in significant market reactions.Based on the lockup expiration events of listed companies,this paper studies whether salient insider trading incentive drives tone management at earnings communication conferences.In particular,we innovatively explore the timing,cause,purpose,and effect of tone management.1)Timing:Controlling for firm performance,managers adopt a significantly more positive tone in the most recent earnings communication references held just before the lockup expiration compared to those held at other times;2)Cause:The abnormal tone is positively associated with the ex-ante selling incentives of restricted shareholders;3)Purpose:The abnormal tone at earnings communication conferences held just before the lockup expiration cannot predict the future performance,suggesting that the abnormal tone does not have incremental information and managers attempt to mislead the market by overly positive tone;4)Effect:The market reaction to the abnormal tone of earnings communication conferences held just before the lockup expiration is insignificant.The above results show that significant insider benefits,such as cash-out opportunity at lockup expiration,can drive tone management even in real-time interactive earnings communication conferences.However,due to the rational expectation of investors,the tone management does not serve managers’purpose of misleading the market.It implys that the Chinese financial market has a certain degree of effectiveness.

关 键 词：业绩说明会 管理层语调操纵 解禁减持 业绩预测 市场反应 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]