未来我国出租车发展趋势及市场化改革研究  

Development Trend and Market Reform of China's Taxi in the Future

作　　者：奉鸣 信红喜[1,2] 骆冠良 何佳媛 FENG Ming;XIN Hongxi;LUO Guanliang;HE Jiayuan(Transport Planning and Research Institute,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China;Laboratory for Traffic&Transport Planning Digitalization,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028 [2]综合交通规划数字化实验室,北京100028

出　　处：《综合运输》2023年第4期28-32,共5页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：出租汽车是我国城市客运交通重要的有机组成部分,是一个提供公共服务并且直接关系公共利益的行业。为充分研究出租汽车市场化改革的内在依据,助力形成统一开放交通运输市场,本文对我国出租车发展史以及数十年来出租车与其他交通方式发展的竞合、替代关系进行研究。在网约车新业态快速发展的背景下,结合国家顶层设计导向,对未来出租车发展的态势与数量进行研判和预测,认为出租车将向高品质、偏独享、服务特殊人群方向发展,为社会公众提供个性化运输服务,巡游出租车与网约车的划分边界将更加模糊,中短期内出租车数量将呈现稳中有降。最后,从改革路径,出行结构,融合发展和强化监管等角度提出出租车行业市场化改革建议。Taxi is an important organic part of China's urban passenger transportation.It is an industry that provides public services and is directly related to public interests.In order to fully study the internal basis of the taxi market reform and help form a unified and open transportation market,this article studies the history of the development of taxis in China and the competition,cooperation,and substitution relationship between taxis and other transportation modes in the past decades.In the context of the rapid development of the new online car-hailing business,combined with the national top-level design orientation,the future development trend and quantity of taxis will be studied and predicted.It is believed that taxis will develop in the direction of high-quality,exclusive,and service to special groups of people.To provide personalized transportation services to the public,the boundary between cruise taxis and online car-hailing will be more blurred,and the number of taxis will show a steady decline in the short to medium term.Finally,from the perspectives of reform path,travel structure,integrated development and strengthening supervision,suggestions for market-oriented reform of the taxi industry are put forward.

关 键 词：交通政策 出租汽车 改革研究 网约车 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]