基于混合效应模型和分位数回归的长白落叶松枝下高模型构建  

Model construction for height to crown base of Larix olgensis based on mixed-effects model and quantile regression

作　　者：易达 李凤日[1] 马爱云[1] 林富成 郝元朔 董利虎[1] YI Da;LI Fengri;MA Aiyun;LIN Fucheng;HAO Yuanshuo;DONG Lihu(Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management,School of Forestry,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,森林生态系统可持续经营教育部重点实验室,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2023年第4期1035-1042,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD2201000)。

摘　　要：枝下高是反映树冠特征的重要指标,准确预测枝下高对森林的经营管理和提高林分生产具有重要意义。本研究采用非线性回归构建枝下高广义基础模型,再进一步扩展到混合效应模型和分位数回归模型,通过“留一法”检验对模型的预测能力进行评价和比较。此外,使用4种抽样设计和不同抽样大小对枝下高模型进行校正,选择最佳的模型校正方案。结果表明:基于包含树高、胸径、林分每公顷断面积和优势木平均高的枝下高广义模型、扩展后的混合效应模型以及三分位数组合模型的预测精度均显著提高,混合效应模型略优于三分位数组合模型,最佳抽样校正方案为抽5株平均木。因此,推荐在实践应用中使用混合效应模型,抽5株样地平均木校正预测枝下高。Height to crown base is an important index reflecting the characteristics of tree crown.It is of great significance to accurately quantify height to crown base for forest management and increasing stand production.We used nonlinear regression to construct the height to crown base generalized basic model,and further extended that to the mixed-effects model and quantile regression model.The prediction ability of the models was evaluated and compared by the‘leave-one-out’cross-validate.Four sampling designs and different sampling sizes were used to calibrate the height to crown base model,and the best model calibration scheme was selected.The results showed that based on the height to crown base generalized model including tree height,diameter at breast height,basal area of the stand and average dominant height,the prediction accuracy of the expanded mixed-effects model and the combined three-quartile regression model were obviously improved.The mixed-effects model was slightly better than the combined three-quartile regression model,and the optimal sampling calibration scheme was to select five average trees.The mixed-effects model with five average trees was recommended to predict the height to crown base in practice.

关 键 词：长白落叶松 枝下高模型 混合效应模型 分位数回归 模型校正 

分 类 号：S791.22[农业科学—林木遗传育种]