2021年开封市大气污染物对人群死亡影响的时间序列分析  

Time series analysis of the impact of atmospheric pollutants on mortality in Kaifeng City in 2021

作　　者：焦文志[1] 邱富芝[1] 陈冲[1] JIAO Wen-zhi;QIU Fu-zhi;CHEN Chong(Department of Environmental Health,Kaifeng Center for Diseases Control and Prevention,Kaifeng,Henan 475000,China)

机构地区：[1]开封市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科,河南开封475000

出　　处：《中国卫生工程学》2023年第2期150-153,共4页Chinese Journal of Public Health Engineering

摘　　要：目的了解2021年开封市大气污染物污染状况,探讨大气污染物与居民死亡的关系。方法收集2021年开封市大气污染物监测数据、气象数据、死因数据,运用Spearman相关分析及时间序列分析探讨大气污染物与居民死亡的关系及滞后效应。结果开封市大气污染物PM2.5(17.8%)、PM10(13.2%)及O_(3)(13.2%)超标率较高,PM2.5、PM10气温低时污染较重,O_(3)气温高时污染较重。总死亡数、呼吸系统疾病死亡数(r_(s)=0.12、0.14、0.15、0.14、0.10)和循环系统疾病死亡数(r_(s)=0.26、0.25、0.27、0.27、0.13)与大气污染物PM2.5、PM10、NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO的污染浓度均呈正相关关系(r_(s)=0.28、0.25、0.27、0.26、0.13,P<0.05)。PM2.5每升高10个单位,人群非意外死亡风险增加1.15%,人群呼吸系统死亡风险增加3.47%,人群循环系统死亡风险增加1.07%。结论开封市不同季节主要的大气污染物有所不同,应制定针对性的防治策略,相关性分析提示大气污染可能使死亡率增加。Objective To understand the status of air pollution in Kaifeng in 2021,and to explore the relationship between air pollution and residents'death.Methods We collected the monitoring data,meteorological data,and death cause data of air pollutants in Kaifeng City in 2021,and used Spearman correlation analysis and time series analysis to explore the relationship between air pollutants and residents'death and the lag effect.Results The excessive rate of air pollutants PM 2.5(17.8%),PM10(13.2%)and O_(3) in Kaifeng City were high.The pollution of PM2.5and PM10 was heavier when the tem-perature was low,and the pollution of O_(3) was heavier when the temperature was high.The total number of deaths,the num-ber of deaths from respiratory system diseases(r_(s)=0.12,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.10)and the number of deaths from circulatory system diseases(r_(s)=0.26,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.13)were positively correlated with the pollution concentrations of air pollu-tants PM2.5,PM10,NO_(2),SO_(2) and CO(r_(s)=0.28,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.13,P<0.05).For every 10 units of increase in PM2.5,the risk of non accidental death of the population increases by 1.15%,the risk of respiratory system death of the population increases by 3.47%,and the risk of circulatory system death of the population increases by 1.07%.Conclusion The main air pollutants in Kaifeng are different in different seasons,so targeted prevention and control strategies should be formulated,Correlation analysis showed that air pollution may increase mortality.

关 键 词：大气污染物 PM2.5 死亡 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]