2000-2020年全球肝癌发病和死亡状况和未来流行趋势:GLOBOCAN数据分析  

Global liver cancer incidence and mortality and future trends from 2000 to 2020: GLOBOCAN data analysis

作　　者：王瑞华 胡明 杨之雨 牛喆昀 陈宏森 周雄 曹广文 Wang Ruihuaa;Hu Ming;Yang Zhiyu;Niu Zheyun;Chen Hongsen;Zhou Xiong;Cao Guangwen(Department of Epidemiology,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;Department of Epidemiology,Naval Medical University,Shanghai 200433,China;Tongji University School Medicine Tongji University,Shanghai 200120,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学流行病学教研室,广州510632 [2]海军军医大学流行病学教研室,上海200433 [3]同济大学医学院,上海200120

出　　处：《中华肝脏病杂志》2023年第3期271-280,共10页Chinese Journal of Hepatology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2015CB554000);国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流项目(81520108021)。

摘　　要：目的比较全球不同地区肝癌发病和死亡的地理差异和时间趋势,对未来肝癌负担进行预测。方法收集GLOBOCAN 2020数据库中2000-2020年全球不同人类发展指数国家肝癌发病和死亡数据。使用joinpoint模型及年度百分比变化分析2000-2020年全球肝癌发病和死亡状况和未来流行趋势。结果男性肝癌年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)从2000年的8.0/10万到2015年7.1/10万(年度百分比变化=-0.7,95%CI:-1.2~-0.3,P=0.002),女性肝癌ASMR从2000年的3.0/10万到2015年2.8/10万(年度百分比变化=-0.5,95%CI:-0.8~-0.2,P<0.001)。男女ASMR比例2000年为2.67∶1,2015年为2.51∶1,说明男女死亡率差异略有缩小。2020年全球肝癌ASIR和ASMR分别为9.5/10万和8.7/10万。男性年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)和ASMR(分别为14.1/10万和12.9/10万)是女性(分别为5.2/10万和4.8/10万)的2~3倍。不同人类发展指数国家和地区ASIR和ASMR存在显著差异(P_(ASIR)=0.008,P_(ASMR)<0.001),ASMR分布和ASIR极其接近。预计2040年新发病例将增加58.6%(1436744例),死亡病例将增加60.9%(1335375例),其中亚洲发病数和死亡数分别增加397003例和374208例。结论2000-2015年,全球范围内由肝癌引起的ASMR呈下降趋势,但2020年肝癌最新流行病学现状及预测表明,未来20年肝癌防控在全球范围内仍然是一项重大挑战。Objective To compare the geographical differences and time trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality in different regions around the world so as to predict the future burden of liver cancer.Methods The incidence and mortality data of liver cancer in different Human Development Index(HDI)countries from 2000 to 2020 were collected from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database.The joinpoint model and annual percent change(APC)were used to analyze the liver cancer global incidence and mortality as well as future epidemic trends from 2000 to 2020.Results ASMR for male liver cancer was increased from 8.0/100,000 in 2000 to 7.1/100,000 in 2015(APC=-0.7,95%CI:-1.2~-0.3,P=0.002),while ASMR for female liver cancer was increased from 3.0/100,000 in 2000 to 2.8/100,000 in 2015(APC=-0.5,95%CI:-0.8~-0.2,P<0.001).The ratio of male to female ASMR was 2.67:1 in 2000 and 2.51:1 in 2015,indicating a slight narrowing of the difference in mortality between men and women.In 2020,the global ASIR and ASMR for liver cancer were 9.5/100000 and 8.7/100000,respectively.Male ASIR and ASMR(14.1/100,000 and 12.9/100,000,respectively)were 2~3 times higher than females(5.2/100,000 and 4.8/100,000,respectively).There were significant differences between ASIR and ASMR in different HDI countries and regions(P_(ASIR)=0.008,P_(ASMR)<0.001),and the distributions of ASMR and ASIR were very similar.New cases and deaths were expected to increase by 58.6%(143,6744)and 60.9%(133,5375)in 2040,with the number of cases and deaths increasing by 39,7003 and 37,4208 in Asia,respectively.Conclusion ASMR due to liver cancer worldwide has had a downward trend between 2000 and 2015.However,the latest epidemiological status and predictions of liver cancer in 2020 indicate that prevention and control will still be a major challenge globally in the next 20 years.

关 键 词：肝癌 人类发展指数 标化发病率 标化死亡率 

分 类 号：R735.7[医药卫生—肿瘤]