基于蒙特卡洛法的城市电动汽车充电负荷预测  

Research on charging load forecasting of urban electric vehicle based on Monte Carlo method

作　　者：任明远 姜明军 宋玉峰 彭晶 陈思行 李帅兵 REN Mingyuan;JIANG Mingjun;SONG Yufeng;PENG Jing;CHEN Sixing;LI Shuaibing(State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company,Lanzhou 730031,China;School of New Energy and Power Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]国网甘肃省电力公司,甘肃兰州730031 [2]兰州交通大学新能源与动力工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《电气应用》2023年第4期18-23,共6页Electrotechnical Application

摘　　要：近年来,我国电动汽车数量呈现出高增长趋势,针对电动汽车充电负荷的不确定性对电网的影响,提出一种基于改进Bass模型预测电动汽车保有量的方法,在此基础上,构建出蒙特卡洛法的城市电动汽车充电负荷预测模型。首先,通过改进非线性最小二乘法,对模型参数进行估计和初步优化,提出了一种组合预测模型分析传统汽车数量,并通过基于层次分析法的德尔菲法,建立传统汽车和电动汽车之间的联系,以此进行电动汽车保有量的预测;其次,基于蒙特卡罗法模拟城市电动汽车用户出行习惯,预测电动汽车的无序充电行为,形成电动汽车的日负荷曲线;最后,基于某地实际数据建立仿真模型,验证该模型的可行性。In recent years,the number of electric vehicles in China has shown a high growth trend.In view of the impact of the uncertainty of electric vehicle charging load on the power grid,a method based on the improved Bass model to predict electric vehicles ownership is proposed.On this basis,a Monte Carlo method for urban electric vehicle charging load prediction model is constructed.Firstly,by improving the nonlinear least squares method,the model parameters are estimated and preliminarily optimized,and a combined forecasting model is proposed to analyze the number of traditional cars.Through the Delphi method based on the analytic hierarchy process,the relationship between traditional cars and electric vehicles is established to predict the electric vehicles ownership.Secondly,based on Monte Carlo method,the travel habit of urban electric vehicle users is simulated to predict the disorderly charging behavior of electric vehicles and form the daily load curve of electric vehicles.Finally,a simulation model is established based on the actual data of a certain place to verify the feasibility of the model.

关 键 词：电动汽车 充电负荷预测 蒙特卡洛法 保有量 BASS模型 

分 类 号：U491.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] TM715[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]