基于模糊数学的甘肃河东地区短时暴雨的大气环境参数综合评价研究  

Comprehensive evaluation of atmospheric environmental parameters of short-duration rainstorm in Hedong region of Gansu Province based on fuzzy mathematics

作　　者：赵玉娟 路亚奇 张洪芬 张可心 周忠文 刘英 ZHAO Yujuan;LU Yaqi;ZHANG Hongfen;ZHANG Kexin;ZHOU Zhongwen;Liu Ying(Qingyang Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Qingyang 745000,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]庆阳市气象局,甘肃庆阳745000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2023年第4期543-551,共9页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：甘肃省气象局气象科研项目(MS2022-09-B);甘肃省气象局气象科技项目(人才专项)(2122rczx-青年优秀科技人才-04);甘肃省自然科学基金(22JR5RM1045);甘肃省气象局气象科技项目(人才专项)(2122rczx-英才计划-04)。

摘　　要：为了改进短时暴雨预报方程,提高短时暴雨预报准确率,综合评价多种大气环境参数对甘肃河东短时暴雨预报的影响权重是十分必要的。本文利用甘肃河东2013—2018年汛期降水量资料,采用百分位法计算了甘肃河东6—8月短时暴雨阈值,根据阈值挑选出甘肃河东92个短时暴雨个例,使用ECMWF 0.25°×0.25°再分析资料,分析大气环境参数发现,K指数、700 hPa相对湿度、大气可降水量等参数对甘肃河东短时暴雨有较好的指示意义;基于模糊数学的方法,考虑显著性及适度性,构建了28个大气环境参数的综合评价方案,得出不同时段大气环境参数权重,综合分析表明:甘肃河东汛期发生短时暴雨时,各时段大气环境参数权重排序不同,预报短时暴雨时需考虑其所处气候时段大气环境参数的权重,并对权重排序较前的参数进行重点考虑。It is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the influence of various atmospheric environmental parameters on short-duration rainstorm forecasts in the Hedong region of Gansu Province in order to improve the short-duration rainstorm forecast equation and accuracy.Based on precipitation data from the flood season of 2013 to 2018 in the Hedong region of Gansu Province,using the percentile method,the threshold of short-duration rainstorms from June to August in Hedong was calculated.Ninety-two cases of short-duration rainstorms in the Hedong region of Gansu Province were selected based on the threshold of time-to-storm rain.Using ECMWF 0.25°×0.25°reanalysis data to analyze the atmospheric environmental parameters,it was found that the K index,relative humidity of 700 hPa,the atmospheric precipitable amount,and other parameters are good indicators of short-duration rainstorms in the Hedong region of Gansu Province.Based on the method of fuzzy mathematics,considering the significance and moderation,a comprehensive evaluation plan for 28 atmospheric environmental parameters was constructed,and the weights of atmospheric environmental parameters in different periods were obtained.The analysis shows that,when short-duration rainstorms occur in the flood season in the Hedong region of Gansu Province,the weights of atmospheric environmental parameters differ in different periods.When forecasting a short-duration rainstorm,the weight of atmospheric environmental parameters in the period in which it is located should be considered,and the parameters with the highest weight ranking should mainly be considered.

关 键 词：甘肃河东 短时暴雨 模糊数学 大气环境参数 ECMWF细网格模式 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]