中老年人无认知障碍预期寿命研究  

Study on Cognitive-Impairment-Free Life Expectancy of the Middle-aged and Elderly in China

作　　者：赵明 戚立权 董明英 Zhao Ming;Qi Liquan;Dong Mingying

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学金融学院 [2]中国人民大学统计学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2023年第2期52-67,共16页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：全国统计科学研究重点项目“新时代人口长期均衡发展综合评价指标体系研究”(2022LZ36);首都经济贸易大学青年学术创新团队项目“大数据背景下健康老龄化综合评价指数体系与精算测度研究”(QNTD202104);北京市属高等学校优秀青年人才培育计划项目(The Project of Cultivation for young top-motch Talents of Beijing Municipal Institutions)“大数据背景下老年人健康预期寿命不平等的多维测度研究”(BPHR202203166)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章基于2011~2018年“中国健康与养老追踪调查”数据,采用Markov模型和多状态生命表方法,对中老年人无认知障碍预期寿命进行测量。研究结果显示,随年龄增长,中老年人无认知障碍预期寿命占平均预期寿命的比重不断降低,而认知障碍预期寿命占比不断升高,80岁及以上人口认知障碍预期寿命占比超过50%;相对于身体受损,中老年人认知障碍获得改善的概率较高,但仅限于状态逐级逆转,由重度障碍直接恢复至基本健康的概率较小;女性中老年人无认知障碍预期寿命占平均预期寿命的比重小于男性,其平均预期寿命的延长主要表现为认知障碍持续时间的增加,且随时间推移认知障碍预期寿命占平均预期寿命比重的性别差异呈扩大趋势。研究结论为预防老年人认知障碍、建立完善的老年人护理服务体系和发展长期护理保险制度提供了政策启示。Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018,this study builds Markov models and multistate life tables to measure the cognitive-impairment-free life expectancy among the middle-aged and elderly Chinese.The results show that the share of cognitive-impairment-free life expectancy(CIFLE)in the life expectancy(LE)decreases for the middle-aged and elderly Chinese as they age,meanwhile the share of life expectancy with cognitive impairment(CILE)increases,which exceeds 50%by age 80.Unlike physical disability,cognitive impairment in the middle-aged and elderly people is reversible in a certain sense,although the reversal is mainly restricted to adjacent impairment states.The share of CIFLE in LE is lower for females than for males,indicating that the extension of female life expectancy is largely accompanied with extended duration of cognitive impairment.The gender gap of the share of CILE in LE enlarges over time.The results have policy implications for preventing diseases of dementia and cognitive impairments,establishing a systematic nursing service system and designing more diversified long-term care insurance products for older adults.

关 键 词：中老年人 认知障碍 健康预期寿命 

分 类 号：R749.1[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]