全球旅游贸易时空格局及影响因素研究  

Research on the temporal and spatial patterns and influencing factors of global tourism trade

作　　者：刘涵妮 夏赞才[1] 殷章馨[2] 申慧敏[1] 刘婷[1,3] 张慧 LIU Hanni;XIA Zancai;YIN Zhangxin;SHEN Huimin;LIU Ting;ZHANG Hui(College of Tourism,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China;Department of Discipline Planning and Graduate Studies,Hunan First Normal University,Changsha 410205,China;College of Management,Hunan City University,Yiyang 413000,China;College of Economics and Management,Changsha University,Changsha 410022,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学旅游学院,长沙410081 [2]湖南第一师范学院学科规划与研究生处,长沙410205 [3]湖南城市学院管理学院,益阳413000 [4]长沙学院经济与管理学院,长沙410022

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2023年第4期14-27,共14页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42001209)。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情导致全球旅游贸易水平断崖式下跌,探索旅游贸易时空演化特征、规律及驱动因素,对实现全球旅游贸易复苏显得尤为重要。选取全球140个国家(地区)近20年的旅游贸易数据,采用空间分析技术刻画全球旅游贸易时空格局演化,运用地理探测器、地理加权回归模型对全球旅游贸易出口的驱动因素及其空间异质性进行分析。结果表明:(1)全球国家(地区)旅游贸易重心逐渐向亚洲移动,形成了北美、欧洲、亚洲三大旅游贸易市场;(2)全球旅游贸易演变时序呈现震荡增长、短期波动、敏感性强的特点;(3)全球旅游贸易进出口格局的空间集聚强度先增强再减弱;(4)包括航空运输水平、互联网使用率在内的旅游连接通道是刺激全球旅游贸易出口的主导因子,世界自然文化遗产、旅游价格水平对旅游贸易出口的驱动作用较弱;(5)影响因子对旅游贸易出口的影响效应存在空间异质性。The new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused a dramatic decline in the level of global tourism trade.It is particularly important to explore the characteristics,regularities and driving factors of the temporal and spatial evolution of tourism trade in order to achieve a rapid recovery of global tourism trade.The paper selects tourism trade data from 140 countries(regions)worldwide over the past 20 years,uses spatial analysis techniques to characterize the temporal and spatial patterns of global tourism trade,and examines the driving factors and spatial heterogeneity of global tourism trade exports through geographic detectors and geographic weighted regression models.The results reveal that:(1)The center of global tourism trade has gradually shifted to Asia,forming three major markets in North America,Europe and Asia.(2)The temporal evolution of global tourism trade shows the characteristics of turbulent growth,short-term fluctuations and strong sensitivity.(3)The intensity of spatial agglomeration in global tourism trade import and export patterns first increased and then decreased.(4)Tourism connection channels,including the level of air transportation and Internet usage rate,are the leading factors stimulating the exports of global tourism trade.(5)There is spatial heterogeneity in the impact of influencing factors on tourism trade exports.

关 键 词：旅游贸易 格局演化 空间自相关 地理加权回归 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F591[经济管理—旅游管理] F742[经济管理—产业经济]