碳交易政策如何影响工业碳生产率:来自中国省级数据的准自然实验  

How Do Carbon Trading Policies Affect Industrial Carbon Productivity:Quasi-natural Experiments from Chinese Provincial Data

作　　者：房琪 李绍萍[1] Fang Qi;Li Shao-ping(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Petroleum University,Daqing 163318,China)

机构地区：[1]东北石油大学经济管理学院,大庆163318

出　　处：《环境科学》2023年第5期2983-2994,共12页Environmental Science

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目(19JYE257);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(22YJC790086)。

摘　　要：当前,在中国奋力实现“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标的背景下,不仅给碳排放量相对较高的工业企业带来较大环境治理压力,同时也给其在经济增长方面带来较大冲击.对其随着碳交易政策的提出,是否能够产生“减碳促经”效果展开深入研究.基于2005~2019年30个省市数据,通过双重差分等方法和多重中介效应模型对碳交易政策与工业碳生产率的影响效果和作用路径展开深入分析.结果表明,碳交易政策能够明显提升工业碳生产率水平;同时该种作用效果会随着试点区域的不同存在明显差异;该政策能够产生显著的环境规制、结构优化、技术和能源结构优化效应.建议通过加速完善环境规制层面法律制度、加快构建环保产业发展新体系、加强绿色技术创新研发力度和加速优化能源结构方面促进中国工业经济向低碳化发展转型.At present,China's efforts to achieve a"carbon peak"and"carbon neutrality"not only put great pressure on environmental governance to industrial enterprises with relatively high carbon emissions but also bring great pressure to their economic growth.However,with the proposal of a carbon trading policy,in-depth research was carried out to explore whether it can produce the effect of"carbon reduction and economic promotion."Based on the data of 30 provinces and cities from 2005 to 2019,this study conducted an in-depth analysis on the impact and path of carbon trading policies and industrial carbon productivity through methods such as double difference and multiple mediation effect models.The results showed that the carbon trading policy could significantly improve the level of industrial carbon productivity;at the same time,the effect will vary significantly with different pilot regions;the policy can produce significant effects of environmental regulation,structural optimization,technology,and energy structure optimization.It is suggested to promote the transformation of China's industrial economy to low-carbon development by accelerating the improvement of the legal system at the environmental regulation level,accelerating the construction of a new development system for the environmental protection industry,strengthening the innovation and research and development of green technology and accelerating the optimization of the energy structure.

关 键 词：碳交易政策 工业碳生产率 双重差分模型 多重中介效应模型 碳达峰 碳中和 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]