1950~2019年中国季节平均最高气温时空演变特征及其大气环流影响定量化分析  

Quantitative Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Seasonal Average Maximum Temperature and Its Influence by Atmospheric Circulation in China from 1950 to 2019

作　　者：苏越 路春燕[1,2,3] 黄雨菲 苏艳琳 王自立 雷依凡 Su Yue;Lu Chun-yan;Huang Yu-fei;Su Yan-lin;WANG Zi-li;LEI Yi-fan(College of Computer and Information Sciences,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;Research Centre of Resource and Environment Spatial Information Statistics of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350002,China;Key Laboratory of Ecology and Resources Statistics of Fujian Province Universities,Fuzhou 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学计算机与信息学院,福州350002 [2]福建省资源环境空间信息统计研究中心,福州350002 [3]生态与资源统计福建省高校重点实验室,福州350002

出　　处：《环境科学》2023年第5期3003-3016,共14页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42101392);福建省自然科学基金项目(2020J01572);福建农林大学杰出青年研究人才计划项目(XJQ201920)。

摘　　要：全球变暖和人类活动加剧引起区域气候不稳定,高温事件发生频次和持续性增强,生态环境保护和经济社会发展面临严峻威胁.采用Mann-Kendall检验法和一元线性回归法探讨1950~2019年中国季节平均最高气温(AMT)时空演变特征,并结合线性相关、偏线性相关以及小波分析揭示中国各季节AMT与大气环流间的联系.结果表明:(1)时间尺度上,各季节AMT均呈显著上升趋势,春、夏、秋和冬季AMT上升幅度分别为1.21、0.08、1.81和0.25℃,其突变时间主要集中于20世纪90年代至21世纪初.(2)空间分布上,除夏季以外,其它季节AMT平均变化率由南向北逐渐增加,但其增加程度各不相同,其中春冬季节东北和西北地区变化速率最快.(3)各季节AMT与大气环流因子间存在复杂关系,其能量强度在不同时频域上具有显著差异.其中太平洋年代际涛动与夏季AMT呈显著负相关,北大西洋涛动对夏秋冬季AMT变化产生较大程度正向驱动,北极振荡对各季节AMT均具有明显正向驱动作用,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动因年份不同对春夏季AMT的短期变化存在显著正向或负向影响.研究结果可为我国制定科学有效的气候变化应对方案提供理论依据和技术参考.Global warming and intensified human activities have led to regional climate instability with increasing frequency and the persistence of high-temperature climate events.Eco-environmental protection and socio-economic development have been faced with rigorous threats.Taking the monthly maximum temperatures from 1950 to 2019 as the basic data source,the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of seasonal average maximum temperature(AMT)were discerned using the Mann-Kendall test and unary linear regression method in China from 1950 to 2019.Combined with linear correlation,partial linear correlation,and wavelet analysis,the correlation between seasonal AMT characteristics and atmospheric circulations was analyzed quantitatively.The results showed that:①the AMT in all seasons had a significant upward trend,with an increase of 1.21,0.08,1.81,and 0.25℃in spring,summer,autumn,and winter,respectively.The abrupt change times of the AMT were concentrated in the 1990s to the early 21st century.②In terms of spatial distribution,except for in summer,the average trend rates of AMT in other seasons increased gradually from south to north,although the increasing degrees were different.Among them,the AMT change rate in spring-winter was the fastest in northeast and northwest China.③There were complex correlations between the AMT of every season and atmospheric circulation factors,and the distribution of the interrelation energy varied significantly in different frequency domains.Specifically,the Pacific Decadal Oscillation had a significant negative correlation with AMT in summer.The North Atlantic Oscillation had an active effect on AMT changes in summer,autumn,and winter.The Arctic Oscillation had a significant positive driving effect on AMT in all seasons,and there were significant positive or negative influences on the short-or long-term changes of AMT in spring and summer due to the different EI Niño-Southern Oscillation years.These results could provide a theoretical basis and technical reference for China to fo

关 键 词：季节平均最高气温(AMT) 大气环流 MANN-KENDALL检验 交叉小波 小波相干 遥相关分析 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]