碳排放权交易试点与全要素生产率——兼论波特假说、技术溢出与污染天堂  

Carbon Trading Pilots and Total Factor Productivity——With Discussions on Porter Hypothesis,Technology Diffusion and Pollution Paradise

作　　者：贾智杰 林伯强[2] 温师燕 JIA Zhijie;LIN Boqiang;WEN Shiyan(Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an,China;Xiamen University,Xiamen,China;Xi'an University of Finance and Economics,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学,710049 [2]厦门大学,361005 [3]西安财经大学,710100

出　　处：《经济学动态》2023年第3期66-86,共21页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“碳中和框架下的能源产业升级、环境污染治理与经济高质量发展”(72133003);教育部青年项目“碳中和框架下碳定价公平性研究——基于隐含碳排放和社会福利的视角”(22YJC790047)。

摘　　要：本文以我国碳试点为例,研究了碳交易机制(ETS)对全要素生产率(TFP)的影响。本文部分避开了选择性偏差和统计平均陷阱,PSM-加权DID模型的结果表明:碳试点对TFP有负向影响,因此,在试点城市中不满足强波特假说,但存在异质性。如果放松个体不相关的假定,空间模型的证据表明:碳试点可以显著促进非试点地区的TFP,但对试点地区的TFP具有一定的抑制作用。目前来看,碳交易试点存在的技术扩散效应大于污染天堂效应,且可以在国家层面促进TFP的增长,因此,满足全国层面上的强波特假说。Taking China's carbon pilots as an example,this paper studies the impact of the carbon emission trading scheme(ETS)on total factor productivity(TFP).The results of PSM-weighted DID model show that the carbon pilot has a negative impact on TFP.Therefore,it does not meet the strong Porter hypothesis in the pilot cities,but there is heterogeneity.If the assumption of individual uncorrelation is relaxed,the results show that carbon pilots can significantly promote TFP in non-pilot areas,but inhibit TFP in pilot areas.It provides evidence that the technology diffusion effect of the ETS pilot is greater than the pollution paradise effect,and can promote the growth of TFP at the national level.Therefore,it meets the strong Porter hypothesis at the national level.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易试点 全要素生产率 波特假说 PSM-空间加权DID模型 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F832.5[经济管理—金融学] F124F224