震后滑坡易发性评价及其时效性研究  

Susceptibility Assessment of Post-earthquake Landslide and Timeliness Research

作　　者：李佳春 孟祥瑞 胡顺忠 杨勇 第宝锋[1,2] LI Jia-chun;MENG Xiang-rui;HU Shun-zhong;YANG Yong;DI Bao-feng(Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction,Sichuan University-The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Chengdu Sichuan 610207,China;Key Laboratory of Mountain Disaster Risk Warning and Prevention and Control of Ministry of Emergency Management,Chengdu Sichuan 610065,China;Office of Reorganization Affairs,Chengdu Military Region,Chengdu Sichuan 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学-香港理工大学灾后重建与管理学院,成都610207 [2]山区灾害风险预警与防控应急管理部重点实验室,成都610065 [3]成都军区善后工作办公室,成都610000

出　　处：《西华师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期269-278,共10页Journal of China West Normal University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFD1100701);四川省科技厅国际合作项目(2020YFH0060)。

摘　　要：在汶川地震重灾区,滑坡等次生地质灾害具有频率高、周期长的特点,静态的滑坡易发性评价难以长期指导滑坡风险治理。为了研究震后滑坡易发性评价结果的时效性,对银厂沟附近震后滑坡进行了遥感解译与野外调查,并筛选出10个易发性评价因子,利用确定性系数法,以斜坡为评价单元建立震后滑坡易发性模型。将研究区划分为5个易发性等级,根据滑坡解译数据的空间分布和数量关系特征分析易发性评价的时效性。结果表明:银厂沟地区基于2010年解译数据的震后滑坡易发性评价结果在2010年和2014年时效性较好,但于2016年以后滑坡发育情况差异较大,基本失去时效性。研究说明强震区震后滑坡易发性评价的时效性较短,针对震后灾害频发地区的滑坡易发性评价需要提升评价频率或开展多时相评价,以有效应用于滑坡风险治理。As landslides and other secondary geological disasters are characterized by high frequency and long period in the hardest hit regions of Wenchuan earthquake,it is difficult for static landslide susceptibility to guide the landslide risk management for a long time.Remote sensing interpretation and field investigation are carried out for the post-earthquake landslides near Yinchanggou to study the timeliness of post-earthquake landslide susceptibility.Ten factors are selected as assessment factors of post-earthquake landslide susceptibility.Certainty factor module and slope as the assessment unit are employed as assessment unit to establish a post-earthquake landslide susceptibility assessment model.The study area is divided into five susceptibility grades and the timeliness of susceptibility is analyzed in accordance with the relationship between spatial distribution and quantitative relationship of the landslide interpretation data.The results show that the post-earthquake landslide susceptibility based on 2010 landslide interpretation data in Yinchanggou area have excellent timeliness in 2010 and 2014.However,it is quite different from the actual landslide development after 2016,probably losing its timeliness.It indicates that the timeliness of post-earthquake landslide susceptibility in highly seismic region is relatively short and the landslide susceptibility assessment of areas with frequent post-earthquake disasters requires the promotion of evaluation frequency and multi-temporal evalation to effictively manage landslide risk.

关 键 词：震后滑坡 易发性 时效性 确定性系数法 银厂沟 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] P954[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X43