基于新熊彼特理论的阿坝州震后经济增长研究  

Research on Economic Growth of Aba Prefecture After Earthquake Based on New Schumpeter Theory

作　　者：唐彦东 张雨[1] 于汐 罗荣荣 TANG Yandong;ZHANG Yu;YU Xi;LUO Rongrong(School of Emergency Management,Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065201,China;Research Center of Disaster Risk Management,Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065201,China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院应急管理学院,河北三河065201 [2]防灾科技学院灾害风险管理研究中心,河北三河065201

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第2期12-18,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国地震局重大政策理论与实践问题研究课题“贯彻习近平总书记关于提高自然灾害防治能力重要论述的深化研究”(CEAZY2019JZ01)。

摘　　要：新熊彼特理论是以知识为基础的内生经济增长模型中最为重要的模型,既继承了熊彼特关于增长是创造性破坏过程的基本思想,又区分了人力资本与技术之间的区别。该文在阐述地震灾害对物质资本、人力资本、技术水平等模型变量作用机制的基础上,探讨了震后各产业经济增长的变化规律。对阿坝州汶川地震和九寨沟地震后经济增长开展实证分析。采用灰色预测模型预测了震后阿坝州GDP和各产业产值数据,并与实际值进行了对比分析,总结了阿坝州震后各产业及各部门的经济增长特征,并基于新熊彼特理论分析了各产业具有不同增长特征的原因。The New Schumpeterian Theory is the most important model among the endogenous economic growth models based on knowledge.It inherits Schumpeter’s basic idea that growth is a process of creative destruction and distinguishes human capital from technology.Based on the action mechanism of the earthquake disaster on the model variables such as physical capital,human capital and technical level,the change law of the economic growth of each industry after the earthquake is discussed.An empirical analysis of economic growth after Wenchuan earthquake and Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Aba Prefecture is carried out.The grey prediction model is used to predict the GDP and output value of each industry in Aba Prefecture after the earthquake,and the actual value is compared and analyzed.The economic growth characteristics of each industry and each sector in Aba Prefecture after the earthquake are discussed,and the reasons for the different growth characteristics of each industry are analyzed based on the New Schumpeterian Theory.

关 键 词：经济增长 熊彼特理论 创新 人力资本 地震灾害 四川阿坝 

分 类 号：X45[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[经济管理—世界经济] F12