气候变化与极端气象灾害对宁夏农业经济的影响评估  

Impact Assessment of Climate Change and Extreme Meteorological Disasters on Agricultural Economic Output in Ningxia

作　　者：罗慧 刘杰[4] 王丽[5] 唐智亿 LUO Hui;LIU Jie;WANG Li;TANG Zhiyi(Ningxia Meteorological Bureau,Yinchuan 750002,China;Qinling Mountains Field Experiment Station for Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics,China Meterological Administration,Xi’an 710015,China;Key Laboratory of Characteristic Agrometeorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management in Arid Regions,China Meterological Administration,Yinchuan 750002,China;International Business School,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China;Xi’an Meteorological Bureau of Shaanxi,Xi’an 710016,China;School of Future Technology,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象局,宁夏银川750002 [2]中国气象局秦岭气溶胶与云微物理野外科学试验基地,陕西西安710015 [3]中国气象局旱区特色农业监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [4]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710119 [5]西安市气象局,陕西西安710016 [6]西安交通大学未来技术学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第2期74-78,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国气象局气象软科学研究项目(2023ZDIANXM05);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20XJC790002);陕西省政府重点产业创新链(群)项目(2020ZDLSF06-02);国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(41861144021)。

摘　　要：综合气候学与经济学交叉学科理论,定量评估了气候变化与极端气象灾害对宁夏农业经济的影响。结果表明,年平均温度和降水量均非线性影响农业经济,温度对农业经济的影响大于降水,北部引黄灌区对平均温度和降水的变化更加敏感;≥35℃极端高温和重旱显著负面影响农业经济;中南部非灌溉区面临“高温干旱”复合型灾害影响,北部引黄灌溉区面临“旱涝急转”型灾害影响。在宁夏南北部“暖湿”和“暖干”可能进一步分异的背景下,决策者与生产者要抓住有利气候条件,规避极端气象灾害不利影响,促进地区粮食丰收和乡村产业振兴。By combining the interdiscipliary theory of climactology and economics,This paper quantitatively assesses the impacts of climate change levels and extreme events on the agricultural economy of Ningxia,respectively.The results show that both annual average temperature and precipitation have non-linear effects on agricultural economy,and the effect of temperature on agricultural economy is greater than that of precipitation,and the northern irrigated area is more sensitive to changes in average temperature and precipitation;extreme high temperature≥35℃and severe drought have significant negative effects on agricultural economy;The non-irrigated area in the south-central region faces compound disaster effects of high temperature and drougth,and the irrigated areas in the north face type disaster impacts of drought and flood.In the context of a possible further divergence between“warm-wet”and“warm-dry”between northern and southern Ningxia,agricultural producers and policy makers should seize favorable climatic conditions,avoid the impact of adverse climatic hazards and promote sustainable development of the regional agricultural economy.

关 键 词：气候变化 极端气象灾害 农业经济 宁夏 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济] P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5