航空发动机不确定性设计体系探讨  

Uncertainty⁃based design system for aeroengines

作　　者：郑新前[1,2] 王钧莹 黄维娜 伏宇 程荣辉 熊洪洋 ZHENG Xinqian;WANG Junying;HUANG Weina;FU Yu;CHENG Ronghui;XIONG Hongyang(Institute for Aero Engine,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Vehicle and Mobility,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;AECC Sichuan Gas Turbine Establishment,Chengdu 610500,China;AECC Guiyang Engine Design Research Institute,Guiyang 550081,China;AECC Shenyang Engine Research Institute,Shenyang 110015,China;Department of Air Force Equipment,Beijing 100843,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学航空发动机研究院,北京100084 [2]清华大学车辆与运载学院,北京100084 [3]中国航发四川燃气涡轮研究院,成都610500 [4]中国航发贵阳发动机设计研究所,贵阳550081 [5]中国航发沈阳发动机研究所,沈阳110015 [6]空军装备部,北京100843

出　　处：《航空学报》2023年第7期1-18,共18页Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2017-Ⅱ-0004-0016)。

摘　　要：航空发动机全生命周期过程中存在着大量的随机和认知不确定性因素,往往带来研发迭代周期长、制造合格率低、使用维护困难等一系列问题。近年来国内外针对不确定性分析已经开展了一系列研究,但尚未从理论层面系统地提出航空发动机不确定性设计体系。在当前航空发动机确定性设计体系的基础上,结合不确定性分析取得的研究成果,对如何构建航空发动机不确定性设计体系、实现航空发动机设计体系的变革进行了探讨。首先归纳了航空发动机中的不确定性因素及其影响,进而对不确定性设计体系的内涵和必要性进行了探讨。不确定性设计体系以实现研发一次成功为最终目标,在设计的各个阶段对性能分散度进行定量化评估与控制,产生全生命周期内性能、可靠性、鲁棒性和成本等方面综合最优的设计方案。基于这一内涵界定,对不确定性设计体系的流程、方法、平台、规范和组织等各项基本要素逐项进行了分析,提出了不确定性设计体系建设的阶段性展望、预期收益以及各项挑战。A significant number of random and epistemic uncertainties exist in the whole life cycle of an aeroengine,causing problems such as a long design iteration cycle,low manufacturing qualification rate,and difficulties in mainte⁃nance.Recent years have witnessed a series of research on uncertainty analysis at home and abroad;however,the uncertainty design system of aeroengines has not been proposed systematically at the theoretical level.Based on the current deterministic design system and the results of uncertainty research,this paper discusses the construction of the uncertainty-based design system and realization of the design system reform for aeroengines.The uncertainty fac⁃tors and their influence on aeroengines are first summarized,followed by discussion of the definition and necessity of the uncertainty-based design system.The ultimate goal of the uncertainty-based design system is to achieve success⁃ful research and development with a single iteration.The performance distribution is quantitatively evaluated and con⁃trolled at each design stage to produce a comprehensive optimal design scheme in terms of performance,reliability,robustness,and costs in the whole life cycle.Based on this definition,the basic elements of the uncertainty-based de⁃sign system are analyzed,including the process,method,platform,specification,and organization.Finally,the peri⁃odic prospects,expected benefits,and challenges of the uncertainty-based design system are presented.

关 键 词：航空发动机 不确定性分析 鲁棒性设计 可靠性设计 设计体系 

分 类 号：V235.1[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]