信息诱导下基于贝叶斯更新的出行后悔感知特征分析  

Analysis of travel regret perception characteristics based on Bayesian update under information induction

作　　者：李巧茹 鲁秋雨[1] 陈亮 LI Qiaoru;LU Qiuyu;CHEN Liang(School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;Insitute of Smart Infrastructure,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300401 [2]河北工业大学智慧基础设施研究院,天津300401

出　　处：《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期469-481,共13页Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51908187);河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(QN2018231)

摘　　要：为了准确预测描述出行路径决策行为,探究出行者感知及先进的出行者信息系统(advanced traveler information systems,ATIS)预测信息对决策行为的作用机制,将期望后悔理论与贝叶斯更新方法相结合,以出行时间为变量构建基于二次后悔更新的出行路径决策模型,继而提出后悔更新价值的概念,应用数值模拟方法分析在即时性及滞后性2种不同质量水平的ATIS预测信息影响下,对二次后悔更新过程及路径决策行为的影响。研究表明:二次后悔更新过程能够有效修正路径感知偏差及期望后悔水平;常规交通状态下,即时性信息比滞后性信息场景下的二次后悔更新水平高20%,偶发性交通状态下差距可达50%,即有效及时的ATIS预测信息对于保证后悔更新效果及决策准确性具有重要作用。In order to accurately predict and describe travel route decision-making behavior,explore the mechanism of traveler perception and ATIS prediction information on decision-making behavior,combine the expected regret theory with Bayesian update method,and use travel time as a variable to construct a trip based on the twice regret update The path decision model then proposes the concept of regret update value,and uses numerical simulation method to analyze the impact on the second regret renewal process and path decision behavior under the influence of ATIS prediction information with two different quality levels,namely,the immediate information and the lagging information.The results show that the twice regret update process can effectively correct the path perception deviation and expected regret level.Under conventional traffic conditions,the immediate information is 20%higher than the secondary regret update level in the lagging information scenario,and the gap can reach 50%in the occasional traffic states.That is,effective and timely ATIS forecast information plays an important role in ensuring the effect of regret update and the accuracy of decision-making.

关 键 词：出行 后悔感知 贝叶斯更新 期望后悔最小化 先进的出行者信息系统 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]