基于SEIR模型的疫情预测与决策系统  

Epidemic Prediction and Decision-making System Based on SEIR Model

作　　者：王冰玉 乔兴琪 曹嘉辰 李卓宇 WANG Bingyu;QIAO Xingqi;CAO Jiachen;LI Zhuoyu(Yan'an University,Yan'an 716000,China;Xi'an Traffic Engineering Institute,Xi'an 710300,China)

机构地区：[1]延安大学,陕西延安716000 [2]西安交通工程学院,陕西西安710300

出　　处：《现代信息科技》2023年第9期141-145,共5页Modern Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61866038);延安市科技局项目(203010096);延安大学校级项目(205040306)。

摘　　要：利用传统的传染病模型,结合现有数据和决策理论,建立了一种预防COVID-19的智能预测与决策系统,对新冠疫情的现有数据信息进行研究和分析,并对其传播趋势进行预测。系统主要分为首页、新闻速览、SEIR模型、疫情地区现状、问题反馈5个部分。其中SEIR模型模块是利用传染病模型SEIR模型预测新冠感染的传播和发展趋势。经过合理的预测分析和信息科普可以对多变的突发性疫情进行更科学的决策,同时也为群众了解新冠疫情相关信息提供方便快捷的窗口和渠道。Using the traditional infectious disease model,combined with existing data and decision-making theory,an intelligent prediction and decision-making system for preventing of COVID-19 is established,and the existing data and information of COVID-19 infection are studied and analyzed,and its transmission trend is predicted.The system is mainly divided intofive parts:homepage,news quick overview,SEIR model,current situation of epidemic areas,and problem feedback.Among them,the SEIR model module uses the infectious disease model SEIR model to predict the spread and development trend of COVID-19 infection.After reasonable predictive analysis and information popularization,we can make more scientific decisions on the changeable sudden epidemic,and also provide a convenient and fast window and channel for the public to understand the relevant information of the COVID-19 epidemic.

关 键 词：SEIR模型 新冠感染 疫情预测 传染病 

分 类 号：TP311[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]