欧盟技能预测实践概览:主体、内容与方法  

Overview of EU Skills Forecasting Practice:Subjects,Content,and Methods

作　　者：张学英 耿旭 Zhang Xueying;Geng Xu(Dongguan University of Technology;Central China Normal University)

机构地区：[1]东莞理工学院经济与管理学院 [2]华中师范大学

出　　处：《职教论坛》2023年第4期43-51,共9页Journal of Vocational Education

基　　金：国家社会科学基金教育学一般课题“中国技能型社会建构的逻辑起点、制度体系及优化路径”(编号:BJA220258),主持人:张学英。

摘　　要：文章追溯了欧盟的技能预测实践并解析其技能预测的主体构成、内容和方法。欧洲职业培训发展中心负责提供欧盟职业教育与培训政策的基础数据,制定和实施欧盟职业培训政策,监测劳动力市场发展趋势。技能预测工作涵盖顶层设计、统计信息收集和预测结果使用三个环节,不同部门或主体负责不同环节的工作。技能预测内容聚焦于职业结构变迁预测和资格水平变迁预测。欧洲技能指数监测从技能开发、技能激活到技能匹配这一技能全周期的技能错配状况,并据此预判欧盟的技能发展趋势。欧盟常用的技能预测方法为在线职位空缺与技能分析法和欧洲技能和就业调查,其中在线职位空缺与技能分析法是欧洲职业培训发展中心的职位空缺分析系统,负责提供欧盟的技能供需数据;欧洲技能和就业调查定期收集欧盟各国劳动力市场的技能要求、技能错配以及初始和继续教育等信息为制定职业教育与培训政策提供建议。This article traces EU's skills forecasting practice and analyzes its subjects,content,and methods.The European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training(ECDVT) is responsible for providing basic data on EU vocational education and training policies,developing and implementing EU vocational training policies,and monitoring labor market trends.Skills forecasting work covers three stages,namely top-level design,statistical information collection,and application of forecasting results,with different departments or subjects responsible for different stages of work.The content of skills forecasting focuses on predicting changes in occupational structure and qualification levels.The European Skills Index monitors the skills mismatch situation throughout the entire skills cycle from skill development,activation,to matching,and predicts the EU's skills development trends accordingly.The EU's commonly used skills forecasting methods are Online Job Vacancies and Skills(OJVS)and the European Skills and Jobs Survey(ESJS).OJVS is based on the job vacancy analysis system of ECDVT,which provides EU skills supply and demand data.ESJS regularly collects information on skill requirements,skill mismatches,initial and continuing education,and other labor market information in EU countries to provide recommendations for vocational education and training policies.

关 键 词：技能预测 职业结构 资格水平 欧洲技能指数 欧盟在线职位空缺与技能分析法 欧洲技能和就业调查 

分 类 号：G710[文化科学—职业技术教育学]