基于高分卫星的冬小麦长势监测及驱动因素分析  

Monitoring Winter Wheat Growth and Analyzing Its Determinants Using High-Resolution Satellite Imagery

作　　者：王乐[1] 樊彦国[1] 樊博文 王勇 WANG Le;FAN Yanguo;FAN Bowen;WANG Yong(China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,China;Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China;Yantai Geographic Information Center,Yantai 264000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东),山东青岛266580 [2]哈尔滨工程大学,哈尔滨150001 [3]烟台市地理信息中心,山东烟台264000

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2023年第5期24-32,51,共10页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(42106215);山东省自然科学青年基金项目(ZR202103030691)。

摘　　要：【目的】冬小麦作为我国第二大粮食作物,掌握其长势情况对于保障我国粮食安全具有积极意义。【方法】首先基于Sentinel-2影像,利用随机森林的方法提取研究区2018—2020年冬小麦种植的空间分布,并利用高分影像提取分析了冬小麦种植区域内2018—2020年在返青期、起身拔节期、孕穗抽穗期、开花期的长势变化情况,之后将冬小麦长势变化分为长势较好、长势持平、长势较差3个等级进行对比分析;其次利用地理探测器对典型年份(2018年)的冬小麦长势监测结果与气温、降水量、坡度、坡向、高程、土壤类型、土壤湿度、日照时间、人口密度、乡村劳动力资源、GDP这11种驱动因子进行因子探测和交互探测,定量解释了影响冬小麦长势差异的原因。【结果】对比3 a冬小麦长势情况,2020年冬小麦在返青期与起身拔节期长势较好,面积占比为90%以上,而在孕穗抽穗期长势较差,面积占比为20%以上,在开花期长势持平,面积占比约80%。对冬小麦长势解释力较高的驱动因子的排列顺序为:乡村劳动力资源数>土壤湿度>降水量>气温>日照时间,各驱动因子之间的交互作用表现为双因子增强或非线性增强。【结论】冬小麦的长势变化受到多因素共同作用,是复杂因子交互作用的一种结果。【Objective】Winter wheat is the second-largest stable crop in China and comprehending its growth and the factors affecting it on a large scale is crucial for food security.This paper aims to investigate the feasibility of using satellite imagery to accomplish this objective.【Method】The study is based on Sentinel-2 images.The spatial distribution of winter wheat planted from 2018 to 2020 in the studied region was extracted using the random forest method,which were then used to analyze the changes in wheat growth in rejuvenation,jointing,pregnant ear pumping,and flowering stages in each year.For comparison,we divided the growth into health growth,normal growth and poor growth.Wheat growth was linked to 11 abiotic and geographic factors,including temperature,precipitation,slope of the lands,slope aspect,elevation,soil type,soil moisture,sunshine time,population density,rural labor resources and GDP.【Result】Compared with 2018—2019,wheat in 2020 grew better during the greening and jointing stages in more than 90%of the studied area,but worse in the pregnant ear pumping stage in more than 20%of the studied area.Wheat growth was normal during the flowering stage in 80%of the studied area.The factors which affect winter wheat growth were ranked in the following order based on their significance:rural labor resources>soil moisture>precipitation>temperature>sunshine time.It was also found that the interaction between different factors in their impact on wheat growth is manifested as a bifold or nonlinear enhancement.【Conclusion】The change in winter wheat growth in the studied region is due to the complex interplay of multiple factors.

关 键 词：冬小麦 面积提取 长势监测 地理探测器 位山灌区 

分 类 号：S127[农业科学—农业基础科学]