东北黑土区耕地生态承载力动态评价及预测分析  

Dynamic Evaluation and Prediction Analysis of Cultivated Land Ecological Carrying Capacity in Black Soil Region of Northeast China

作　　者：崔宁波[1,2] 王婷 巴雪真 罗伟 CUI Ningbo;WANG Ting;BA Xuezhen;LUO Wei(Modern Agricultural Development Research Center,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;College of Economics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;Heilongjiang Academy of Sciences,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学现代农业发展研究中心,哈尔滨150030 [2]东北农业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150030 [3]黑龙江省科学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2023年第3期37-47,共11页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY149)。

摘　　要：耕地生态安全是粮食安全的基本保障,明晰黑土区耕地生态承载状况是夯实东北地区粮食安全压舱石的重要前提。基于2007~2019年统计数据,运用“省公顷”耕地生态足迹模型和ArcGIS等方法,在修正耕地均衡因子与产量因子的基础上,从时间和空间角度刻画总结东北黑土区耕地生态动态演化态势,并借助灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对比分析2020~2029年东北黑土区耕地生态未来变化趋势。结果表明,东北黑土区耕地生态足迹总体呈波动上升趋势,耕地生态承载力表现为先升后降的趋势变动,区域始终位于耕地生态盈余状态;东北黑土区内耕地生态水平呈“中间高,两端低”的空间分布格局,并逐渐由两端集聚向中部地区转移,整体上趋于衰退方向发展;2021年后,东北黑土区可能会暴露耕地生态赤字局面,到2029年人均耕地生态赤字达到0.2241公顷/人,黑土耕地资源利用将陷入不可持续发展阶段。The ecological security of cultivated land is the basic guarantee of food security,and it is an important prerequisite to clarify the ecological carrying status of cultivated land in black soil region,which is a ballast stone to consolidate food security in Northeast China.Based on the statistical data from 2007 to 2019,by using methods such as the ecological footprint model of"sub-national hectares"and ArcGIS,and on the basis of correcting the balance factors and yields factors of cultivated land,the dynamic evolution of cultivated land ecology in the black soil region of Northeast China was depicted and summarized from time and space,and the future change trend of cultivated land ecology from 2020 to 2029 in the black soil region of Northeast China was compared and analyzed with the help of grey GM(1,1)prediction model.The results showed that the ecological footprint of cultivated land in the black soil region of Northeast China showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land showed an increased firstly and then decreased trend,and the region was always in the ecological surplus state of cultivated land;the ecological level of cultivated land in the black soil region of Northeast China presented a spatial distribution pattern of"high in the middle and low at both ends",and gradually shifted from gathering at both ends to the central region,and tended to decline as a whole;After 2021,the ecological deficit of cultivated land might be disclosed in the black soil region of Northeast China.By 2029,the ecological deficit of cultivated land per capita will reach 0.2241 hm2/person,and the utilization of cultivated land resources in black soil will fall into an unsustainable development stage.

关 键 词：东北黑土区 耕地生态承载力 生态足迹 预测 

分 类 号：F323.1[经济管理—产业经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]