基于风险度量的多交通方式协同应急救援方案优化  

A multimodal transport collaborative-rescue optimization model for emergency responses based on risk evaluations

作　　者：陈旭浩 吕莹 孙会君[1,2,3] 王兴蓉[1,2,3] CHEN Xu-hao;LV Ying;SUN Hui-jun;WANG Xing-rong(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Institute of Transportation System Science and Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学,交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学,交通系统科学与工程研究院,北京100044 [3]北京交通大学,综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2023年第2期79-94,共16页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项基金项目(71942006);国家自然科学基金重大项目(72091513)。

摘　　要：近年来我国重大交通工程建设中的突发事件频繁发生,且呈现救援条件复杂,影响后果不确定等特征,因此研究多交通方式协同下的应急救援路径优化具有重要意义。本文以复杂地质环境下重大交通工程建设中的突发事件为背景,基于条件风险价值衡量由于救援时间导致的伤亡损失后果,采取多种交通方式协同进行救援。考虑到伤员数量和物资需求的不确定性以及救援资源分配的公平性,建立了最小化总风险和总成本的双目标鲁棒优化模型,用以决策多种交通方式的协同救援路径,以及物资运输和伤员转移方案。本文基于鲁棒对等转化和ε-约束法设计了相应的求解算法,并使用两个路网算例进行验证。研究结果表明,救援路径总风险与总成本之间存在着权衡关系,采用多交通方式协同救援可有效降低伤亡风险;随着伤员数量和物资需求不确定程度的增加,总风险和总成本均呈现增加趋势,管理者可依据其对风险的偏好程度决策不同不确定性水平下的最优救援方案;此外,与不考虑公平性约束相比,受灾单元物资需求和伤员转移需求满足率的标准差分别降低了12.9和12.6,平均满足率分别提高了7.5%和8.4%,有效保障了救援资源分配的合理性和公平性。本文所建立的鲁棒模型可有效处理不确定条件下的应急响应问题,帮助决策者制定合理的路径方案,以及物资运输和伤员转移方案。In recent years,it has become more common for emergencies to involve complex rescue conditions and uncertain consequences in the construction of major traffic engineering projects.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the emergency rescue route optimization of multimodal vehicles in special and complex geological environments,in order to improve emergency responses.A bi-objective robust optimization model is formulated to minimize the total risk and total cost of emergency responses.The model is configured to determine the specific rescue paths of multimodal transport,as well as organizing material transportation and a casualty transfer scheme.The uncertain-ty of both casualties and the demand for emergency materials,as well as the fairness of the allocation of rescue resources is considered.A conditional value at risk is adopted to evaluate the effect the res-cue time has on the outcome of an accident.Based on a robust counterpart transformation andε-con-strain method,a corresponding solution algorithm of the proposed model is also formulated.Two road network examples of different sizes are used to verify the performance of the model and the al-gorithm.The results show that there is a trade-off between the total risk and total cost of an emergen-cy response.The risk of casualties can be effectively reduced by implementing a multimodal coordi-nated rescue.An increase to the degree of uncertainty of the number of casualties and the demand for emergency materials results in an increase to the total risk and total cost of the emergency response.Managers can formulate an optimal rescue plan under different uncertainty levels,according to their preferred risk level.In addition,compared with not considering the fairness constraints,the standard deviation of the satisfaction rate of materials demand and casualty transfer demand of disaster-affect-ed units decreases by 12.9 and 12.6,respectively.Furthermore,the average satisfaction rate increases by 7.5%and 8.4%,respectively,guaranteeing that rescue resources a

关 键 词：应急响应 车辆路径问题 条件风险价值 鲁棒优化 多交通方式协同 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]