全国国民图书阅读率会超过60%吗?——基于ARIMA模型的全国国民阅读调查预测研究  

Will the National Book Reading Rate Exceed 60%?——A Study of National Reading Survey Prediction Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：李洪晨 张志强[1] Li Hongchen;Zhang Zhiqiang(School of Information Management,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023)

机构地区：[1]南京大学信息管理学院,南京210023

出　　处：《图书情报工作》2023年第9期72-80,共9页Library and Information Service

摘　　要：[目的/意义]《“十四五”公共文化服务体系建设规划》《出版业“十四五”发展规划》都要求广泛开展全民阅读活动。本研究通过ARIMA模型对全国国民阅读调查结果进行预测,从而为实现“十四五”期间公共文化服务体系建设规划提供参考。[方法/过程]以图书阅读率、纸质图书人均阅读量、报纸人均阅读量和阅读率、期刊人均阅读量和阅读率、数字化阅读接触率、电子书人均阅读量、国民综合阅读率作为被观测数据,对未来国民的阅读接触率和阅读量进行预测。[结果/结论]研究发现纸质阅读人均阅读量、图书阅读率、电子书人均阅读量、数字化阅读接触将继续保持增长状态,其中图书阅读率2022年或将超过60%。期刊阅读率将继续下降,但是期刊人均阅读量在2022年可能出现近年来的首次增长。期刊产业应把握这一机遇,加强主题出版和学术出版建设。报纸阅读率和报纸人均阅读量仍将持续减少。[Purpose/Significance]The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of Public Cultural Service System and the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Publishing Industry both call for extensive reading activities for all people.This study uses ARIMA model to predict the results of the national reading survey and provide a reference for realizing the construction plan of public cultural service system in the 14th Five-Year Plan.[Method/Process]The study used book reading rate,per capita reading of paper books,per capita reading and reading rate of newspapers,per capita reading and reading rate of periodicals,digital reading exposure rate,per capita reading of e-books,and overall reading rate of the nation as the observed numbers to predict the future reading exposure rate and reading volume of the nation.[Result/Conclusion]The study finds that paper reading per capita,book reading rate,e-book reading per capita,and digital reading exposure will continue to grow,with the book reading rate likely to exceed 60%in 2022.The periodical reading rate will continue to decline,but periodical reading per capita may see the first increase in recent years in 2022.The periodical industry should seize this opportunity and strengthen the construction of thematic and academic publishing.Newspaper reading rate and newspaper reading per capita will continue to decrease.

关 键 词：全民阅读 时间序列模型 国民阅读调查 数字化阅读 阅读推广 

分 类 号：G252.1[文化科学—图书馆学]