机组疲劳评估系统模型对中国航司国际航班飞行员疲劳预测的适用性  

Applicability of SAFE Model for Predicting Fatigue of International Flight Pilots of Chinese Airlines

作　　者：李敬强 刘安南 张希凝 胡超 刘林静 LI Jing-qiang;LIU An-nan;ZHANG Xi-ning;HU Chao;LIU Lin-jing(Safety Science and Engineering College,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2023年第13期5819-5825,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金与民航局联合基金(U1933122);中央高校基础科研业务费项目(3122019186)。

摘　　要：为了研究经典生物数学模型在中国航空公司运营环境下的适用性,首先,在中国航空公司的运营环境下,使用持续绩效测试(continuous performance test,CPT)、卡罗林斯卡嗜睡量表(Karolinska sleepiness scale,KSS)和机组人员状态检查表(Samn-Perelli,SP)观测飞行员飞行过程中的警觉度绩效和主观疲劳自评。其次,使用机组疲劳评估系统(system for aircrew fatigue evaluation,SAFE)模拟并量化了相应的飞行员疲劳。最后,比较了SAFE模型预测的机组警觉度值与其疲劳主观自评、客观绩效之间的差异,使用方差分析来探究疲劳影响因子对模型预测和主客观疲劳的影响差异。结果表明:SAFE模型预测机组人员疲劳与其主观疲劳有较强的相关性,整体上模型对机组人员疲劳预测体现了与执勤时长及昼夜节律相关因素的变化趋势,但是连续执勤18 h后预测值会偏高。可见随着对该模型验证数据量的增加及调整,模型相关参数已适应中国飞行运行环境,该模型将能够作为中国航空公司疲劳风险管理体系(fatigue risk management system,FRMS)预测式危险源识别的客观工具,同时也可为中国本土化生物数学模型的理论研究与工程应用提供借鉴。In order to study the applicability of classical biomathematical models in the operating environment of Chinese airlines,firstly,in the operating environment of Chinese airlines,continuous performance test(CPT),Karolinska sleepiness scale(KSS)and Samn-Perelli(SP)fatigue scale were used to observe pilots'alertness performance and self-assessed subjective fatigue during flight.Secondly,the corresponding pilot fatigue was simulated and quantified using the system for aircrew fatigue evaluation(SAFE).Finally,the difference between the crew alertness value predicted by the SAFE model and the subjective self-assessment and objective performance of fatigue was compared,and the analysis of variance was used to explore the difference of the influence factors of fatigue on the model prediction and subjective and objective fatigue.The results show that the SAFE model predicts crew fatigue and subjective fatigue has a strong correlation.Overall,the model's prediction of crew fatigue reflects the change trend of factors related to duty hours and circadian rhythm,but the predicted value is high after 18 h of continuous duty.With the increase in the amount of validation data of the model and the adjustment of relevant parameters of the model to adapt to Chinese flight operating environment,the model can be used as an objective tool for the predictive hazard identification of Chinese airline fatigue risk management system(FRMS).It can also provide reference for the theoretical research and engineering application of the localized biomathematical model in China.

关 键 词：生物数学模型 飞行员 疲劳风险管理体系 国际航班 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]