基于候选技术辅助生成和多源数据评估的颠覆性技术识别方法研究  

Research on Disruptive Technology Identification Method Based on Candidate Technology Aided Generation and Multi-source Data Evaluation

作　　者：吕璐成 赵萍[1] 姜山[3] 王燕鹏[1,2] 张迪 王学昭[1,2] 万勇[3] 刘细文 LüLucheng

机构地区：[1]中国科学院文献情报中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院信息资源管理系,北京100190 [3]中国科学院武汉文献情报中心,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2023年第6期136-144,共9页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：中国科学院战略研究专项“颠覆性技术创新研究——材料领域”(项目编号:GHJ-ZLZX-2021-22-4);中国科学院青年创新促进会(项目编号:E2291801)的研究成果。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]数据驱动的颠覆性技术识别工作的两个难点问题在于:如何准确地获得领域候选颠覆性技术,如何全面有效地评估候选技术的颠覆性潜力。针对这两个问题,提出一种基于候选技术辅助生成和多源数据评估的颠覆性技术识别方法,为颠覆性技术识别工作的开展提供新思路。[方法/过程]针对候选技术获取问题,提出了一种候选技术辅助生成方法,通过词性标注和Head-matching的方法自动构建领域技术层次结构体系,然后结合专家知识判断确定候选颠覆性技术;针对颠覆性潜力评估问题,基于表征“科学—技术—产业—市场”链条的多源数据,界定了两类颠覆性技术,分别是“研究储备高—技术成果多—产业规模大—公众关注高”的潜力型颠覆性技术和“研究储备高—技术成果少—产业规模小—公众关注低”的潜伏型颠覆性技术,并通过计算颠覆性潜力值(DPV)和颠覆性潜伏度(DLV)指标来评估候选技术的颠覆性潜力。[结果/结论]通过在材料领域应用本方法发现,评估得到的DPV较高的3项潜力型颠覆性技术(以石墨烯为代表的二维材料、先进半导体材料和增材制造材料技术)和DLV较高的3项潜伏型颠覆性技术(材料基因组、智能材料和超材料技术)覆盖了专家咨询确定的验证集中的6项技术,证明了本方法的有效性。[局限]技术层次体系自动构建方法适用于头名词特征比较明显的技术领域,技术颠覆性潜力评估采用的多源数据需要结合颠覆性技术本质特征进一步深化扩展。[Purpose/significance]Two difficult problems in data-driven disruptive technology identification are how to accurately obtain candidate disruptive technologies in the field and how to comprehensively and effectively evaluate the disruptive potential of candidate technologies.In view of these two problems,this study proposes a disruptive technology identification method based on candidate technology assisted generation and multi-source data evaluation,and conducts application research in the field of materials,providing a new idea for the development of disruptive technology identification.[Method/process]Aiming at the problem of candidate technology acquisition,a candidate technology aided generation method is proposed.The domain technology hierarchy system is automatically constructed by part of speech tagging and head matching,and then the candidate disruptive technologies are determined by expert knowledge judgment;for the assessment of disruptive potential,based on the multi-source data characterizing the“science-technology-industry-market”chain,two types of disruptive technologies are defined,namely,potential disruptive technologies with“high research reserves-more technological achievements-large industrial scale-high public concern”and latent disruptive technologies with“high research reserves-less technological achievements-small industrial scale-low public concern”,and evaluates the disruptive potential of candidate technologies by calculating the disruptive potential value(DPV)and the disruptive latency value(DLV).[Result/conclusion]Through the application of this method in the field of materials,it is found that the three potential disruptive technologies with high DPV(two-dimensional materials,advanced semiconductor materials and additive manufacturing materials technologies represented by graphene)and the three potential disruptive technologies with high DLV(material genome,intelligent materials and metamaterials technologies)cover the six technologies in the validation set determined by

关 键 词：颠覆性技术识别 技术层次结构 多源数据 “科学—技术—产业—市场”链条 材料领域 

分 类 号：F416[经济管理—产业经济]