未来升温情景下中国马铃薯产量和水分利用效率变化  

Variations of potato yield and water use efficiency in China underfuture global warming scenarios

作　　者：唐建昭 柏会子 郑艳东 周海涛 张新军 刘剑锋[1] 郭风华[1] 王仁德[1] 肖登攀 王靖[5] TANG Jianzhao;BAI Huizi;ZHENG Yandong;ZHOU Haitao;ZHANG Xinjun;LIU Jianfeng;GUO Fenghua;WANG Rende;XIAO Dengpan;WANG Jing(Heibei Technology Innovation Center for Grographic Information Application,Institute of Geographical Sciences,Hebei Academy of Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050011,China;Land Consolidation and Rehabiliation Center of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050031;Zhangjiakou Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Zhangjiakou 075000,China;College of Geography Science,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050024,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省科学院地理科学研究所/河北省地理信息开发应用技术创新中心,石家庄050011 [2]河北省国土整治中心,石家庄050031 [3]张家口市农业科学院,张家口075000 [4]河北师范大学地理科学学院,石家庄050024 [5]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2023年第7期157-166,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金项目(C2021302004)。

摘　　要：升温和降水变化对全球马铃薯生产构成巨大挑战。揭示未来升温1.5和2.0℃情景下中国不同种植区马铃薯产量和水分利用的变化,对保障中国粮食安全具有重要意义。该研究基于中国不同地区的气候条件和种植制度,将全国马铃薯种植区划分为北方一作区、中原二作区、南方冬作区和西南混作区。进而,基于未来全球气温与基准期(1986-2005)的差值,推算得出全球升温达到1.5和2.0℃的时段分别为2016-2035年和2028-2047年。在全国马铃薯种植区共选择7个马铃薯典型品种。该研究基于气候模式通过降尺度获取的未来气象数据,驱动充分校正的APSIM-Potato模型,模拟分析未来升温1.5℃(2016-2035年)和2.0℃(2028-2047年)情景下中国不同种植区雨养和灌溉(基于土壤水分亏缺模型启动自动灌溉)马铃薯产量和水分利用的变化。结果表明:基准期(1986-2005年),雨养马铃薯产量、生育期蒸散量(evaportranspiration,ET)和水分利用效率(water use efficiency,WUE)分别为0.05~52.40 t/hm^(2)、7~454 mm和3~193 kg/(mm·hm^(2)),与基准期相比,升温1.5℃情景下,北方一作区和中原二作区马铃薯产量和ET呈增加趋势,产量分别增加1.46%和1.93%,ET分别增加3.14%和2.93%;南方冬作区和西南混作区产量和ET呈下降趋势,产量分别下降4.51%和12.74%,ET分别下降2.23%和8.44%;4个种植区马铃薯WUE均呈下降趋势。升温2.0℃情景下,北方一作区、中原二作区和南方冬作区马铃薯产量和ET均呈增加趋势,产量分别增加15.48%、1.54%和3.27%,ET分别增加12.12%、4.63%和4.19%,西南混作区产量和ET分别降低8.82%和8.29%;北方一作区马铃薯WUE呈增加趋势,其他3个区下降0.57%~3.25%。基准期(1986-2005年),灌溉马铃薯产量、ET和WUE分别为6.80~59.60 t/hm^(2)、151~631 mm和7.90~163.60kg/(mm·hm^(2)),与基准期相比,升温1.5℃情景下,北方一作区和中原二作区产量呈增加趋势,分别增加3.60%和3.00%,南方冬作Rising temperature and varying precipitation have posed huge challenges to the potato production in the world.Revealing changes of potato yield and water use efficiency(WUE)under 1.5 and 2.0℃global warming,has significance for food security in China.In this study,based on the different climate conditions and cropping systems found in China,we divided the entire potato planting area across China into four zones,i.e.,the north single cropping system zone,the central double cropping system zone,the south winter cropping system zone and the southwest mixed cropping system zone.Then,the 1.5℃and 2.0℃warming scenarios were generated based on the baseline period of 1986-2005,and the two warming scenarios were anticipated during 2016-2035 and 2028-2047.7 typical potato cultivars were selected for whole potato planting area in China.APSIM-Potato model(version 7.6)was used in this study.To assess the impacts of global warming on potato water use,APSIM-Potato was drive by daily climate data under three climate scenarios of baseline,1.5℃and 2.0℃warming under rainfed and irrigated treatment.Results showed that:Rainfed potato yield,evapotranspiration(ET)and WUE were 0.05-52.40 t/hm^(2),7-454 mm and 3-193 kg/(mm·hm^(2)),respectively during the baseline period(1986-2005).Compared with base line period,under 1.5℃global warming scenario,rainfed potato yield increased by 1.46%and 1.93%in north single and central double cropping system,and the ET increased by 3.14%and 2.93%in the two regions,in south winter and southwest mixture cropping systems,the yield decreased by 4.51%and 12.74%,and ET decreased by 2.23%and 8.44%in the two regions.WUE decreased by 0.10%-6.64%in the four potato planting regions across China.Under 2.0℃global warming scenario,potato yield increased by 15.48%,1.54%and 3.27%in the north single,central double and south winter cropping systems,and the ET increased by 12.12%,4.63%and 4.19%in the three regions,while the yield and ET decreased by 8.82%and 8.29%in southwest mixture cropping systems.WUE incre

关 键 词：气候变化 产量 蒸散量 马铃薯 APSIM-Potato 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]