淮河流域工业生态安全时空演变评价——以安徽段为例  

Evaluation of temporal and spatial evolution of industrial ecological security in Huaihe River basin——a case study for Anhui section

作　　者：何刚[1] 谷雅娴 鲍珂宇 HE Gang;GU Ya-xian;BAO Ke-yu(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science&Technology,Huainan 232001,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第4期1327-1335,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2019D026);安徽省高校人文社会科学研究项目(SK2021A0543)。

摘　　要：为促进淮河流域工业生态可持续发展,探究流域产业转型与生态治理协调路径。基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理(DPSIRM)模型,运用熵权-正态云模型和探索性空间数据分析法研究淮河流域工业生态安全内在机理及时空演变特征,并用灰色预测法预测研究区未来工业生态安全状况。结果表明:1)2013-2020年淮河流域安徽段工业生态安全等级整体明显提升,2013年工业生态安全等级处于Ⅰ、Ⅱ等级城市占总数比例为44.4%,2020年有8个城市达到Ⅲ级及以上生态安全等级。2)淮河流域安徽段工业生态发展南部优于北部,省会合肥的发展远超其余8市,淮北和亳州增速比较缓慢亟须提升。3)未来7年整体呈现向好趋势,各市发展水平有较大的差距。总之,研究区工业生态安全有较大的提升空间,但改善压力较大,且区域间差距值得关注。To promote the sustainable development of industrial ecology in the Huaihe River basin,the methods of coordinating industrial transformation and ecological governance are explored.Based on the DPSIRM model,the study integrates industrial ecological security with the development of water ecology in the basin.This paper studies the inherent mechanism and evolution processes of the industrial security of the Huaihe River basin,using the entropy right-normal cloud model and exploratory space data analysis method,from the perspective of time and space.At the same time,the gray prediction method is used to predict the future industrial security status of the research area.The results show that:(1)From 2013-2020,the industrial ecological safety level of Huaihe River basin in Anhui section increased significantly.In 2013,the proportion of cities in levels I and II were 44.4%,and when 2020,8 cities reached level III and above.(2)The development of industrial ecology in the southern Anhui section of the Huaihe River basin is better than in the north.As the capital of the province,Hefei has far exceeded the remaining eight cities.The growth rate of Huaibei and Bozhou is relatively slow,and it is urgent to improve.(3)Hefei,Lu'an,and Bozhou,the southern city of Anhui,are decentralized in Molan's scattered dot,which indicates that the disparity of urban industrial ecological safety is large.Huaibei,Suzhou,Bozhou,and Bengbu,as the northern cities of Anhui,are obvious low-low clusters in Moran's scattered dots,and the city linkage effect is weak.(4)In the next 7 years,Hefei's industrial ecological development will be steadily improved,and Bozhou,Fuyang,Bengbu,Suzhou,and Lu'an will rise significantly.In short,the Anhui section of the Huaihe River basin has great potential for improvement,but further efforts are needed to improve it.Besides,the gap in industrial ecological security between regions needs more attention.

关 键 词：环境学 工业生态系统 云模型 空间格局 灰色预测 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]