基于活动重要性的关键链项目综合缓冲监控  

Integrated Buffer Monitoring and Control Based on Activity Criticality

作　　者：张俊光[1] 万丹 ZHANG Jun-guang;WAN Dan(School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2023年第4期79-88,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71572010,71701067)。

摘　　要：为使项目监控重点更加突出和决策信息更加全面,本文提出了一种基于活动重要性的综合缓冲监控方法。新方法引入了项目进度风险分析方法中的活动重要性信息,结合活动持续时间的波动程度对重要性判断阀值进行了动态设置,对落入项目风险模糊区的重点活动进行识别和监控,综合分析了项目缓冲消耗和后续执行趋势,并根据缓冲监控触发点和缓冲偏差度对项目进度进行控制。实验结果表明,本文方法在监控区域频数分布、缓冲消耗率、项目工期和成本方面的结果更优,克服了现有监控方法的不足,实现了项目计划与进度调整之间的动态反馈,提高了缓冲管理的效率。Project delay and cost overrun have been common in all industries nowadays.In order to solve these problems,an effective method—critical chain project management(CCPM) is proposed based on the theory of constraints.It is well known that managers will add a large amount of safety time to the project plan.However,this safety time will be consumed during the implementation of the project owing to various factors,such as the student syndrome,which contribute to the project being delayed and increase project costs.CCPM accordingly adopts the concept of buffer to absorb the uncertainties.As one of the core aspects of buffer management,buffer monitoring plays an important role in ensuring the on-time delivery and providing the project with sufficient protection.Although CCPM has improved the efficiency of project management,project duration delay and cost waste still exist due to the unreasonable buffer monitoring procedure.To deal with the problem that the monitoring focus of existing methods is not prominent and the decision information is not comprehensive in the process of buffer monitoring,an integrated buffer monitoring method based on the important characteristics of the activity is proposed in this paper.First,the new method introduces the activity importance information in the project schedule risk analysis method as a basis for identifying those critical activities that needs more attention and stronger actions.The activity importance of the project is measured by comprehensively considering the variability of the activity's duration,the impact of the activity's duration on the completion of the project,and the network location of the activity.And the judgment threshold of the importance index is dynamically set according to the fluctuation degree of the activity duration.Then,the subsequent trend of buffer consumption was forecasted quantitatively based on gray neural network.Considering the project buffer consumption and project follow-up information comprehensively,the degree of deviation of the buffer co

关 键 词：关键链 缓冲管理 缓冲监控 缓冲后续趋势信息 活动重要性 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]