基于贝叶斯网络的连续管作业人因失误风险因素评价分析  

Evaluation and analysis on risk factors of human error in coiled tubing operation based on Bayesian network

作　　者：钟虹[1,2] 何沙 ZHONG Hong;HE Sha(Economics and Management School,Yangtze University,Jingzhou Hubei 434000,China;School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州434000 [2]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第5期144-150,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51974036)。

摘　　要：为准确评估连续管作业人因失误风险因素,针对人因失误风险评价缺乏因素耦合性、事故成因及损失模糊性的特点,运用贝叶斯网络方法对事故的条件概率进行计算,并结合模糊综合评价法对连续管作业人因失误风险因素进行等级评价,通过损失后果与事故发生概率相结合来解释事故成因。研究结果表明:该方法具备处理不确定因素的演绎推理和处理不确定风险的能力,增加评价结果的精确程度和风险预测的客观性;通过模型计算与推理,导致不同类型事故发生的重要风险因素影响程度不一样,技能失误和决策失误是事故影响较大的风险因素。研究结果可为连续管作业规避风险提供理论和方法支撑。In order to accurately evaluate the risk factors of human error in the coiled tubing operation,aiming at the characteristics of lack of factors coupling,accident causes and loss fuzziness in the risk assessment of human error,the Bayesian network method was used to calculate the conditional probability of accidents,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was combined to grade the risk factors of human error in the coiled tubing operation.The causes of accidents were explained through the combination of loss consequence and accident probability.The results showed that this method possessed the ability to handle deductive reasoning of uncertain factors and manage uncertain risks,thereby enhancing the precision of evaluation results and the objectivity of risk prediction.According to the model calculation and reasoning,the influence degree of the important risk factors leading to the occurrence of different types of accidents was different,and the skill error and decision-making error were the risk factors with larger accident influence.The research results can provide theoretical and methodological support for coiled tubing operation to avoid risk.

关 键 词：连续管作业 人因失误 贝叶斯网络 模糊综合评价 风险评价 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]