基于AHP-SPCA熵权模型的松花江流域生态脆弱性时空演变及预测  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Prediction of Ecological Vulnerability in Songhua River Basin Based on AHP-SPCA Entropy Weight Model

作　　者：王跃 刘家福[1,2] 周林鹏 任春颖[2] 张柏[2] Wang Yue;Liu Jiafu;Zhou Linpeng;Ren Chunying;Zhang Bai(College of Tourism and Geographical Science,Jilin Normal University,Siping,Jilin 136000,China;Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun,Jilin 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,吉林四平136000 [2]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2023年第2期212-219,360,共9页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“暴雨洪灾冲击下的松江流域乡村脆弱性及韧性机制研究”(41977411);吉林省教育厅科技项目“乡村洪灾社会脆弱性与韧性时空差异及机制”(JJKH20210445KJ)。

摘　　要：[目的]科学评估松花江流域生态脆弱性动态变化和发展规律,为该区内的生态保护和修复提供科学依据。[方法]从自然和人文角度构建指标体系,运用AHP-SPCA熵权模型、最小相对信息熵以及地学信息图谱等方法,对2005—2020年松花江流域生态脆弱性进行动态评价及时空演变分析,并结合CA-Markov模型对2025年研究区的状况进行预测模拟。[结果]①2005—2015年研究区生态脆弱性自东向西呈现逐渐降低的趋势,而在2020年,西部生态脆弱程度有所升高;2005—2020年研究区生态脆弱性综合指数的均值为3.0068,整体处于中等脆弱状态;②研究期间,微度—潜在、微度—轻度、轻度—中度、中度—轻度图谱类型最为显著;③2020年预测值的kappa系数为0.81,表明CA-Markov模型适用于该模拟预测研究,2025年综合指数为3.2659,整体脆弱程度呈上升趋势。[结论]松花江流域生态脆弱性呈上升趋势,面临着生态恶化的风险,需加强对生态环境的保护治理。[Objective]The dynamic changes and development of ecological vulnerability in the Songhua River basin were scientifically evaluated in order to provide a scientific basis for ecological protection and restoration in the area.[Methods]An index system was constructed from the perspectives of nature and humanity using the AHP-SPCA entropy model and a geo-information spectrum to dynamically evaluate and analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of ecological vulnerability of the study area from 2005 to 2020,The ecological status of the study area in 2025 was simulated and predicted by combining the analysis results with the CA-Markov model.[Results]①Ecological vulnerability of the study area gradually decreased from east to west during 2005—2015,but in 2020,ecological vulnerability increased in the west.During the study period,the average ecological vulnerability was 3.0068,which was in the moderately vulnerable state.②The micro-potential,micro-mild,mild-moderate,moderate-mild spectrum types were the most prominent during the study period.③The kappa coefficient of the predicted value in 2020 was 0.81,indicating that the CA-Markov model was suitable for simulation prediction.The comprehensive index was predicted to be 3.2659 in 2025,and the overall ecological vulnerability was rising.[Conclusion]The ecological vulnerability of the Songhua River basin has been rising over time,and the basin is facing the risk of ecological deterioration.It will be necessary to strengthen efforts to protect and manage the ecological environment.

关 键 词：AHP-SPCA熵权模型 CA-Markov模型 地学信息图谱 生态脆弱性 松花江流域 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]