急性胰腺炎相关胃肠道衰竭的危险因素及APACHEⅡ、BISAP、Ranson评分对其预测价值的研究  

Study on Risk Factors of Gastrointestinal Failure Associated with Acute Pancreatitis and Its Predictive Value of APACHEⅡ,BISAP and Ranson Scores

作　　者：梁丹 LIANG Dan(Longyan First Hospital,Longyan 364000,China)

机构地区：[1]龙岩市第一医院,福建龙岩364000

出　　处：《中外医学研究》2023年第13期36-39,共4页CHINESE AND FOREIGN MEDICAL RESEARCH

摘　　要：目的:探讨急性胰腺炎(AP)相关胃肠道衰竭的危险因素及急性生理和慢性健康评分Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ)、急性胰腺炎床旁严重程度指数(BISAP)评分与Ranson评分对其的预测价值。方法:回顾性分析龙岩市第一医院2019年9月—2022年9月收治的60例AP患者的临床资料,依据是否合并胃肠道衰竭将患者分为未发组(n=36)和衰竭组(n=24),采用单因素和多因素logistic回归分析AP相关胃肠道衰竭发生的危险因素,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析APACHEⅡ评分、BISAP评分与Ranson评分对AP相关胃肠道衰竭的预测价值。结果:单因素及多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、APACHEⅡ评分、BISAP评分、Ranson评分为AP相关胃肠道衰竭发生的独立危险因素(P<0.05);ROC曲线分析结果显示,APACHEⅡ评分、BISAP评分、Ranson评分预测AP相关胃肠道衰竭的AUC分别为0.741、0.712、0.728,特异度分别为62.50%、66.70%、70.80%,敏感度分别为86.10%、80.60%、69.40%;三者联合预测AP相关胃肠道衰竭的AUC、特异度、敏感度分别为0.896、87.50%、91.70%,均高于单一检测(P<0.05)。结论:年龄及APACHEⅡ评分、BISAP评分与Ranson评分升高是AP相关胃肠道衰竭危险因素,且三者联合检测对AP相关胃肠道衰竭的预测价值比单项检测更高。Objective:To explore the risk factors of gastrointestinal failure associated with acute pancreatitis(AP)and Its predictive value of acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ),bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP)score,and Ranson score.Method:The clinical data of 60 AP patients who admitted to the Longyan First Hospital from September 2019 to September 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.They were divided into untreated group(n=36)and failure group(n=24)based on whether they were complicated with gastrointestinal failure.Single factor and multiple factor logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate the risk factors of gastrointestinal failure related to AP.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to analyze predictive value of APACHEⅡscore,BISAP score and Ranson score for gastrointestinal failure related to AP.Result:The results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age,APACHEⅡscore,BISAP score and Ranson score were independent risk factors for the occurrence of gastrointestinal failure related to AP(P<0.05).The ROC curve analysis results showed that APACHEⅡscore,BISAP score and Ranson score predicted the AUC of gastrointestinal failure related to AP were 0.741,0.712 and 0.728,respectively,with specificity of 62.50%,66.70%and 70.80%,and sensitivity of 86.10%,80.60%and 69.40%,respectively;AUC,specificity and sensitivity of the combined prediction of gastrointestinal failure related to AP were 0.896,87.50%and 91.70%,respectively,which were higher than those of a single test(P<0.05).Conclusion:The age and elevated APACHEⅡscore,BISAP score,and Ranson score are risk factors for gastrointestinal failure related to AP,and the combined detection of the three has a higher predictive value for gastrointestinal failure related to AP than a single test.

关 键 词：急性胰腺炎 胃肠道衰竭 APACHEⅡ评分 BISAP评分 RANSON评分 预测 

分 类 号：R576[医药卫生—消化系统]