能源消费结构转型对工业碳脱钩的溢出效应分析:基于中国30个省份的面板数据  

Spillover Effects of Energy Consumption Structure Transformation on Industrial Carbon Decoupling:Based on Panel Data from 30 Provinces in China

作　　者：华靖芬 高俊丽 陈珂[4] 李佳祺 HUA Jingfen;GAO Junli;CHEN Ke;LI Jiaqi(Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health,Institute of Urban Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xiamen 361021,China;Research Center of Urban Carbon Neutrality,Institute of Urban Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xiamen 361021,China;Shenzhen Academy of Environmental Sciences,Shenzhen 518000,China;College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha 410006,China;Longcheng Sub-district Office,Longgang District,Shenzhen 518100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院城市环境研究所城市环境及健康重点实验室,福建厦门361021 [2]中国科学院城市环境研究所城市碳中和研究中心,福建厦门361021 [3]深圳市环境科学研究院,广东深圳518000 [4]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410006 [5]龙岗区龙城街道办事处,广东深圳518100

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2023年第3期71-80,共10页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2020JJ4223)。

摘　　要：推动能源消费结构转型作为“十四五”阶段中应对“双碳”挑战的重要举措,对于工业碳减排具有显著意义。该文按照IPCC碳排放核算方法,建立中国区域工业碳排放测算模型,使用30个省份1998-2019年的面板数据,测算了中国各省份工业的碳排放量。在此基础上,利用Tapio脱钩模型测算了工业碳排放的脱钩状态,并使用固定效应模型研究各省份2003-2019年能源消费结构转型对碳脱钩的影响。结果表明,整体而言中国各省份工业碳排放量呈逐年上升的趋势,但省际间存在较大差异。就工业碳脱钩状态而言,大部分省份处于工业碳排放的弱脱钩状态且能源消费结构转型对工业碳脱钩有负向溢出效应。该文建议工业企业积极进行能源消费结构改革,以满足减排发展需求。政府也应利用政策降低清洁能源成本,促进工业企业清洁能源消费。As an important measure to address the challenge of“double carbon”in the 14th Five-Year Plan period,promoting the transformation of energy consumption structure is of great significance for industrial carbon emission reduction.This paper establishes a regional industrial carbon emission measurement model according to the IPCC carbon accounting method and uses panel data of 30 provinces from 1998 to 2019 to measure the industrial carbon emissions of each province in China.Furthermore,this paper uses the decoupling model to analyze the decoupling status of industrial carbon emissions and applies the fixed-effects analysis method to analyze the impact of energy consumption structure transformation on carbon decoupling in the key years of 2003-2019 in each province.The research results show that,on the whole,the industrial carbon emissions of each province in China show an increasing trend year by year,but there are large inter-provincial differences.In terms of industrial carbon decoupling,most provinces are in a weak decoupling state and the energy consumption structure transformation has a negative spillover effect on industrial carbon decoupling.This paper suggests that industrial enterprises should carry out energy consumption structure reform to meet the needs for emission reduction.The government should use policies to reduce the cost of clean energy,increase government procurement,publicize clean energy products,and promote clean energy consumption in industrial enterprises.

关 键 词：能源消费结构转型 工业 碳排放 碳脱钩 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]