碳排放配额分配规则对煤电收益的影响研究  

Impact of carbon allowance allocation rules on the revenue of coal power sector

作　　者：刘元欣[1] 罗旭 张为荣 袁家海[1,2] LIU Yuan-Xin;LUO Xu;ZHANG Wei-Rong;YUAN Jia-Hai(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2023年第3期334-346,共13页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“碳中和下煤电退出路径、影响评估及公正转型机制设计”(72173043)。

摘　　要：依据中国煤电现状及碳电市场发展趋势,在6种碳价及3种传导率组合的碳配额分配规则下,利用经济调度模型对1000 MW、600 MW和300 MW燃煤机组发电收益影响进行模拟研究。结果表明,300 MW机组对配额基准线与拍卖比例的变化较为敏感。在碳价为50.0元/t、79.9元/t及碳价传导率为20%的碳电市场耦合初期阶段下,配额基准线下降至0.74 t CO_(2)/(MW·h)或拍卖比例升高至50%,300 MW和600 MW机组存在负收益情况。若碳价及其传导率增加,配额基准线与拍卖比例改变对煤电机组造成的负效应更可控;核证减排量比例扩大对提高机组收益影响甚微,可以作为碳市场的一种有益补充并加以监管。因此,在充分考虑煤电承受力和竞争力前提下,制定碳配额分配规则应适应碳电市场发展阶段,积极推动碳电市场耦合传导碳成本,配合抵销机制来加速碳减排。Based on the current situation of China’s coal power and the development trend of carbon market and power market,the impact of carbon allowance allocation rules on power generation revenue of 1000 MW,600 MW and 300 MW coal-fired units under six carbon prices and three pass-through rates were simulated with economic dispatch model.The results show that the 300 MW units are sensitive to the change in carbon allowance baseline and auction ratio.At the initial period of the coupling between carbon market and power market with carbon price of CNY 50.0 yuan/t,CNY 79.9 yuan/t and a pass-through rate of 20%,if allowances baseline drops to 0.74 t CO_(2)/(MW∙h)or the auction ratio rises to 50%,300 MW and 600 MW units will have negative returns.However,when the carbon price and its pass-through rate increase,the negative effect on coal power units caused by the change in carbon allowance baseline and auction ratio is more manageable.The expansion of certified emission reduction ratio has little effect on the improvement of unit revenue,which can be a beneficial supplement to carbon market and be controlled.Therefore,after full consideration of coal power capacity and competitiveness,it is necessary to formulate carbon allowance allocation rules to adapt to the development stages of carbon market and power market,actively promote the coupling of the two markets to pass through carbon costs and cooperate with the offset mechanism to accelerate carbon emission reduction.

关 键 词：碳配额 煤电 经济调度模型 发电收益 传导率 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F426.21[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196