地铁列车振动环境影响响应面预测方法  

Response Surface Prediction Method of Metro Train-induced Vibrations

作　　者：孙烨 刘维宁[2] 刘卫丰[2] 李春阳 刘世行 SUN Ye;LIU Weining;LIU Weifeng;LI Chunyang;LIU Shixing(Beijing General Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100082,China;School of Civil and Architectural Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司,北京100082 [2]北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院,北京100044

出　　处：《噪声与振动控制》2023年第3期202-207,219,共7页Noise and Vibration Control

摘　　要：现有的地铁振动环境影响预测评价方法为采用链式经验公式,预测精度低且属于定值预测,而振动影响因素和预测结果都是动态变化的,定值预测方法对于预测结果的误差分布和准确度无法给出科学的评价和保证。针对在地铁建设可行性研究阶段后期对大量敏感目标点进行快速定量预测的需求,提出一种包含主要随机参数的最大Z振级(Maximum Z-vibration level,VLZ max)响应面预测模型,在频域解析模型计算结果基础上对解析预测法的结果进行数值修正,在提高计算效率的同时保证计算精度。结合实测案例介绍该模型在定值预测与概率预测两方面的应用,发现相应测点在工况下的最大Z振级68%置信水平的预测区间能够很好覆盖实测值。对环评导则链式公式预测方法与响应面预测方法的准确度进行计算并采取预测准确度评价指标PAI(Prediction Accuracy Indicator)进行比较,证明了该方法在计算精准度上的优势。As a special field of prediction theory,the prediction of metro-induced environmental vibration is still in the stage of deterministic prediction framework.No systematic research has been carried out on the random factors affecting the prediction results.In the different prediction stages,there is still no quantitative estimation for the accuracy of the prediction results.In view of the demand for rapid quantitative prediction of a large number of sensitive target points in the later period of subway construction feasibility study,a maximum Z-vibration level response surface prediction model including main random parameters is proposed.Based on the numerical calculation results of analytical prediction method in frequency domain,the results of analytical prediction method are modified to ensure the calculation accuracy and raise the calculation efficiency.Combined with a practical case,the application of this model in deterministic prediction and probabilistic prediction is introduced.It is found that the prediction interval at 68%confidence level of the maximum Z-vibration level under the working conditions of the corresponding measurement points can cover the measured values very well.The accuracies of the standard prediction method and the response surface prediction method are calculated,compared and evaluated by the prediction accuracy evaluation index PAI.It is concluded that the response surface prediction model is more accurate than the standard prediction method.

关 键 词：环境振动 地铁 响应面法 概率预测 准确度评价 

分 类 号：X827[环境科学与工程—环境工程]