基于经济驱动和寿命驱动的轻型客车销量预测模型  

A Light-duty Vehicle Sales Forecasting Model Based on Economic-driven and Life-driven

作　　者：卢淼 刘梦涵[2] 宋国华[1] LU Miao;LIU Meng-han;SONG Guo-hua(Key Laboratory of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport of Transport Industry,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Transport Planning and Research Institute,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室,北京100044 [2]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2023年第4期264-270,共7页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

摘　　要：传统的汽车销量预测方法多依赖于经济参数的增长,然而近年来我国的经济增长逐渐放缓,单纯依赖经济参数的汽车销量预测模型不再适用,且私家车更新淘汰引起的销量结构变化也不容忽视。基于以上因素,将轻型客车销售分为经济驱动和寿命驱动2种模式。在考虑收入差距的基础上,结合人均收入水平和收入分布曲线,建立了轻型客车保有量预测模型,通过合理设置未来经济参数值,计算得到我国轻型客车保有量预测结果。引入车辆存活概率函数,根据历史数据拟合得到我国轻型客车存活概率曲线,以计算由车辆寿命驱动的销量。利用轻型客车保有量预测结果和车辆报废情况,得到2020至2050年2种模式驱动下的我国轻型客车销量。结果表明:我国正处于汽车增长的中期阶段,且增长拐点位于2030年前后,在此时间点后,汽车保有量增长将逐步放缓;我国目前的汽车销售仍由经济驱动占主体,但在研究时间段内,寿命驱动的销量份额不断增加,并从2025年开始超过经济驱动的销量,逐渐占据销售市场;到2050年,我国的轻型客车保有量将达到约5.4亿辆,销售量达到4821万辆左右,其中94.85%为寿命驱动的购置,经济驱动的购买份额仅占5.15%,这表示我国的汽车市场在2050年将接近成熟,但仍存在经济增长导致的购买潜力。Traditional vehicle sales forecasting methods mainly rely on the growth of economic parameters,but in recent years,China's economic growth gradually slows down.The vehicle sales forecasting models that solely rely on economic parameters are no longer applicable,and the structural changes in sales caused by the replacement and scrappage of private vehicles cannot be ignored as well.Based on the factors mentioned above,light-duty vehicle sales are classified into 2 modes,which are economic-driven and life-driven.Considering income disparity and combining per capita income level and income distribution curves,the lightduty vehicle ownership forecasting model is established.By reasonably setting future economic parameters,the forecasting result of light-duty vehicle ownership is calculated.By introducing vehicle survival rate function,the survival rate curves of light-duty vehicles are fitted and obtained based on the historical data to calculate the sales from life-driven.The vehicle sales driven by 2 modes in China from 2020 to 2050 are obtained by using the result of vehicle ownership forecasting and vehicle scrappage.The result shows that(1)China is in the middle stage of automobile growth,and the growth inflection point is at around 2030,after which the growth of ownership will gradually slow down;(2)there is still a strong dominance of economic-driven sales in China,but life-driven sales share increase gradually during the research period,and take over the market from 2025 onwards by surpassing economic-driven sales;(3)by 2050,China's lightduty vehicle ownership will reach about 540 million,and sales will reach about 48.21 million,of which 94.85%is life-driven sales,and the economic-driven purchase only accounts for 5.15%.The result demonstrates that China's vehicle market will be close to maturity in 2050,while purchase potential still will exist due to economic growth.

关 键 词：运输经济 汽车销量预测模型 回归分析 报废车辆预测 轻型客车销量 汽车保有量 车辆存活概率 

分 类 号：U4-9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]